Giáo dục học - Chapter 10: Decision making in schools

W. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011Chapter 10Decision Making in SchoolsMcGraw-Hill/Irwin© 2013 McGraw-Hill Companies. All Rights Reserved.OverviewW. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011Optimizing ModelSatisficing ModelMuddling ModelMixed Scanning ModelContingency ModelI The Classical Model: OptimizingW. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011Optimizing: Make the Best DecisionDefine the ProblemsEstablish Goals and ObjectivesGenerate all Possible AlternativesConsider the Consequences of all AlternativesEvaluate all Alternatives Select the Best AlternativeImplement and Evaluate the DecisionQuestions: Can you make the Best Decision? Why? W. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011 Assumption One: Administrative decision making is a dynamic process that solves some organizational problems and creates others.Always more problemsNo final solutionsAssumption Two: Complete rationality in decision making is impossible;Thus, administrators seek to satisfice rather than optimize. Why?Optimize--the Best DecisionSatisfice-- “Good Enough”Bounded Rationality--Best of a narrow set of alternatives.Some Decision Making AssumptionsW. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011 Decision Making AssumptionsAssumption Three: Values are an integral part of decision making.Assumption Four: Decision making is a general pattern of action found in the rational administration of all tasks and functions.Define the problemAnalyze the difficulties in the situationEstablish criteria for a satisfactory decisionDevelop a strategy of actionInitiate a plan of actionEvaluate the outcomes Tasks of Administration: C&I, supervision, finance & business, PR, etc. Functions of Administration: policy, resources, executive actionW. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011II The Administrative Model: Satisficing Satisficing: Make a Satisfactory DecisionSituationRecognize and Define the ProblemAnalyze the DifficultiesGet the Relevant FactsClassify the ProblemSpecify ProblemEstablish Criteria for aSatisfactory SolutionDevelop a Plan of ActionConsider AlternativesWeigh Consequences of Each AlternativeDeliberateSelect Course of ActionInitiate Action PlanProgramCommunicateMonitorAppraiseW. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011II Steps in Administrative Model:SatisficingStep 1: Recognize and Define the Problem or IssueBe sensitive to difficulties.Define the problem: conceptualize it.Don’t define problem either too narrowly or broadly.What is the short-term problem?What is the long-term problem?W. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011SatisficingStep 2: Analyze the Difficulties in Existing SituationClassify the problem.New problem or Old?Generic or Unique?Routine or Novel?Two common mistakes: Treat routine problem as new problem.Treat new problem as an old one.Get the Relevant FactsWhat is involved? Why? Where? And When? To what extent?W. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011SatisficingStep 3: Establish Criteria for a Satisfactory OutcomeWhat are the minimum objectives to be achieved.Compare your “musts” with your “wants.”Compare the ideal with satisfactory.What is good enough?The minimums that you must get to have a satisfactory decision--the boundary conditions.W. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011SatisficingStep 4: Develop an Action Plan or Strategy Warnings:Do not decide questions that are not pertinent.Do not decide prematurely.Do not make decisions that cannot be effective.Do not make decisions that others should make.Developing a strategy is the heart of the decision-making process.Specify your Alternatives.Predict the Consequences.Deliberate and Develop a Plan Let’s examine each aspect of developing a strategy of action.W. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 20111. Specify AlternativesDevelop a good list of alternatives--your options.Generally speaking the more options the better, but try for at least a dozen; time is a constraint.Search for novel and creative options.Pause and reflect; avoid simple dichotomies.Always consider “doing nothing” as your first option.In brief--Make few dichotomous distinctions.Use divergent thinking strategies.Make and take time to develop a good set of alternatives.Develop Plan of ActionW. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 20112. Predict ConsequencesFor each alternative, predict the probable consequences.Often the development of alternatives and consequences occur together.Try to anticipate the unexpected.Groups are often important at this stage because the help gauge the possible outcomes. W. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 20113. Deliberate and Select Course of ActionReflectively analyze your options and their consequences.Develop a plan with contingencies.Start with first option and then go to second, third, etc. depending on the actual consequences. Think as many steps ahead as you can.Be ready to shift plan if unexpected happens.If you cannot find an acceptable alternative, be prepared to lower your aspiration level--lower criteria of satisfaction.Use some simple heuristics if possible.Be prepared to rethink your entire strategy if necessary.Develop and exit strategyW. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011Final Step in SatisficingStep 5: Initiate and evaluate your plan of actionProgram.Communicate.Monitor.Assess success using criteria of satisfaction.The end is usually a new beginning.W. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011Summary of Administrative Model: SatisficingStep 1: Recognize and Define the Problem or IssueStep 2: Analyze the Difficulties in Existing SituationStep 3: Establish Criteria for a Satisfactory OutcomeStep 4: Develop an Action Plan or StrategyStep 5: Initiate and evaluate your plan of actionTRAPS IN DECISION MAKING TO AVOIDAnchoring Trap: Giving disproportional weight to initial information Comfort Trap: A bias toward alternatives that support the status quoRecognition Trap: Tendency to place a higher value on that which is familiarRepresentative Trap: Tendency to see others as representative of the typical stereotypeSunk-Cost Trap: Tendency to make decisions that justify previous decisions that are not working.Framing Trap: Framing of the problem impacts the eventual solution (Be careful.)Prudence Trap: Tendency to be overcautious when faced with high-stakes decisionsMemory Trap: Tendency to base predictions on memory of past events, which are often over- influenced by both recent and dramatic eventsW. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011III The Incremental Model: MuddlingW. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011Muddling: Successive Limited ComparisonCharles Lindblom describes the way most decisions are made as the process of muddling through.A small and limited set of options are considered.Options are only marginally different from existing situation.Options are considered by comparing actual consequences.Try the option and then observe consequences.If consequences are fine, then a little more.If consequences are negative, then back off and try something different.Focus is on outcomes and trial and error.Muddling ThroughW. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011Summary of Distinctive FeaturesMeans-ends analysis is inappropriate because objectives and generating alternatives occur simultaneously.Good solutions are what decision makers agree to regardless of objectives.Alternatives and outcomes are drastically reduced by considering only options similar to current state.Analysis is restricted to differences between existing state and proposed alternatives.Muddling eschews theory in favor of successive comparison of concrete, practical alternatives.IV The Mixed Scanning Model:  An Adaptive StrategyW. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011Mixed Scanning is guided by two questions: What is the organization’s mission? What decisions move the organization towards its mission and policy?Mixed scanning is a combination of the administrative model and mixed scanning model; it is directed, incremental change.Mixed scanning has its roots in medicine.A broad goal, mission, or policy guides the decision process.Decisions are made incrementally, but with the broad goal in mind.Consequences are assessed in terms of the goal.Decisions are made with partial information.Then further small decisions are made if progress is good. Principles of Mixed ScanningW. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011Use focused trial and error.Be tentative--proceed with caution.If uncertain, procrastinate.Stagger your decisions in stages.If uncertain, factionalize your decisions.Hedge your bets.Be prepared to reverse your decisions.Mixed ScanningW. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011Summary of Distinctive FeaturesBroad organization policy gives direction and provides guidance.Good decisions have satisfactory outcomes and are consistent with policy and mission.The search for options is limited to those close to the problem.Information is incomplete but action essential.Theory, experience, and successive comparisons are used together.W. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011Comparison of the Classical, Administrative, Incremental, and Mixed-Scanning Models of Decision MakingClassicalObjectives are set prior to generating alternativesDecision making is a means-ends analysis: first, ends are determined, and then ALL the means to obtain them are sought.The test of a good decision is that it is shown to be the BEST means to achieve the end.(Optimizing)Engage in comprehensive analysis; all alternatives and all consequences are considered.Heavy reliance on theory.AdministrativeObjectives are usually set prior to generating alternatives.Decision making is typically means-ends analysis; however, occasionally ends change as a result of analysis.The test of a good decision is that it can be shown to result in a SATISFACTORY means to achieve the end; it falls within the established boundary conditions.(Satisficing)Engage in “problemistic search” until a set of reasonable alternatives is identified.Reliance on both theory and experience.IncrementalSetting objectives and generating alternatives are intertwined. Because means and ends are not separable, means- ends analysis is inappropriate.The test of a good decision is that the decision makers can agree an alternative is the “right” direction when the existing course proves to be wrong.(Successive comparing)Drastically limit the search and analysis; focus on alternatives similar to the existing state. Many alternatives and important outcomes are ignored.Successive comparisons reduce or eliminate the need for theory.Mixed ScanningBroad policy guidelines are set prior to generating alternatives.Decision making is focused on broad ends and tentative means.The test of a good decision is that it can be shown to result in a satisfactory decision that is consistent with the organization’s policy.(Adaptive satisficing)Limit the search and analysis to alternatives close to the problem, but evaluate alternatives in terms of broad policy. More comprehensive than incrementalism.Theory, experience, and successiveComparisons used together.V A Contingency Model of  Decision Making W. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011Decision OpportunityNoNoNoNoNoNoNoYesYesYesYesYesYesYesSufficient Information?Important?Sufficient Time?Important?Important?Important?SatisficingTruncated SatisficingAdaptive SatisficingTruncated AdaptiveSatisficingAdaptive SatisficingMuddling toAdaptive SatisficingMuddlingSufficient Time?Truncated AdaptiveSatisficingSwift and Smart DM RulesSatisficing Rule: Optimizing is impossible in school administration: learn to satisfice.Framing Rule: Frame problems in positive terms for positive results. Default Rule: Consider as a first option “doing nothing.”Simplicity rule: Simplicity trumps complexity; start simple. Uncertainty Rule: Uncertain environments often require ignoring information; trust your intuition in this regard. Take-the-Best Rule: Choose the first satisfactory option.Transparency Rule: Make transparency in decision making a habit of thought and action.Contingency Rule: Reflect on your successes and failures; think conditionally. Participation Rule: Involve others in decisions when you deem they have relevant knowledge, a personal stake, and are trustworthy. W. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011Practical ImperativesUse satisficing models of decision making: Optimizing is impossible.Frame problems in ways that enhance positive, productive solutions: Framing does affect solutions.View decision making as a continuous process: There are no final solutions.View problems in terms of both short- and long-term goals: Immediate actions should be consistent with long-term goals.Employ decision-making heuristics carefully: Avoid their hidden traps.Use adaptive satisficing when information is vague or overwhelming or when time is of the essence: Adapt decision making to these decision constraints. Employ objectives, mission, or policy to guide your decisions making: Adaptive satisficing needs direction. Decide on the appropriate decision-making strategy: Assess the sufficiency of information, available time, and the importance of the decision before deciding.Use soft vigilance to solve problems under pressure: Hypervigilance produces panic. Remember there are no final solutions, but only satisfactory solutions for the present.W. K. Hoy © 2003, 2008, 2011