Impact of budget deficit on growth: A case study of Vietnam

26 Tạp chí Khoa học & Đào tạo Ngân hàng Số 210- Tháng 11. 2019 © Học viện Ngân hàng ISSN 1859 - 011X Impact of budget deficit on growth: A case study of Vietnam Khanh Tuyet Nguyen Thanh Khac Hoai Le Ngày nhận: 22/05/2019 Ngày nhận bản sửa: 16/06/2019 Ngày duyệt đăng: 27/08/2019 This study examines the extent to which budget deficit affects economic growth in Vietnam in the 2007-2017 period. Using the panel data regression, where the dependent variable is the economic growth (GDP), independent variables include consumer price index (CPI), foreign direct investment (FDI) and budget deficit (BD), the results show that during the research time frame, budget deficit has a positive correlation with economic growth at a statistically significant level, while no significant correlation is found between CPI and FDI with the dependent variable. Keywords: Budget deficit, Growth, Vietnam Economy Ảnh hưởng của thâm hụt ngân sách đến tăng trưởng: Nghiên cứu trường hợp của Việt Nam Tóm tắt: Nghiên cứu này xem xét mức độ ảnh hưởng của thâm hụt ngân sách đến tăng trưởng kinh tế ở Việt Nam trong giai đoạn 2007-2017. Với hồi quy dữ liệu bảng, biến phụ thuộc là tăng trưởng kinh tế (GDP), các biến độc lập bao gồm chỉ số giá tiêu dùng (CPI), đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài (FDI) và thâm hụt ngân sách (BD), kết quả cho thấy trong khung thời gian nghiên cứu, thâm hụt ngân sách có mối tương quan dương với tăng trưởng kinh tế ở mức có ý nghĩa thống kê, trong khi không có mối tương quan đáng kể nào được tìm thấy giữa CPI và FDI với biến phụ thuộc. Từ khóa: thâm hụt ngân sách, tăng trưởng, kinh tế Việt Nam. Nguyễn Tuyết Khanh Email: tuyetkhanh1203@gmail.com Lê Khắc Hoài Thanh Email: hoaithanhlk89@gmail.com Khoa Kinh tế- Du lịch, Đại học Quảng Bình 1. Introduction Vietnam and many other countries have been facing numerous issues and instability that have a great impact on the macro economy. One of the issues is a state budget deficit which is an extremely sensitive issue, especially in developing countries like Vietnam. In the context of global economy with big changes such as increasing oil and gasoline prices, financial crisis in the US, high inflation Faculty of Economics and Tourism, Quang Binh University KHANH TUYET NGUYEN - THANH KHAC HOAI LE 27Số 210- Tháng 11. 2019- Tạp chí Khoa học & Đào tạo Ngân hàng rates..., finding solutions to adjust a state budget deficit is urgent and necessary. In Vietnam, the level of budget deficit is increasing and negatively affecting people’s living standard as well as the national economy. In recent years, Vietnam’s economy has been facing many uncertainties. Although during the period 2007-2017 the GDP showed a positive trend, it grew at unstable rate, while budget deficit also sharply increased, especially in the 2012- 2016 period (Figure 1). While studying the causes of these uncertainties, we have found that besides the external impacts of the 2008 global financial and economic crisis, there are other reasons that need to be mentioned: (i) ineffective fiscal management, e.g. budget calculation methods that do not follow the international practices; (ii) inadequate process of managing and allocating public expenditures, (iii) raising government budget ineffectively. Within the research scope, the study gives an overview of Vietnam’s budget deficit since 2007 to provide a comprehensive view on economic growth and the budget deficit in relation to the growth in both theoretical and practical perspectives. 2. Literature review Experimental studies on the relationship between budget deficit and economic growth also give many heterogeneous results. According to Al-Khedair (1997), interest rate increases in the short run due to budget deficit, but in the long run that impact has not been explored. Al-Khedair used the VAR model by selecting a data of G-7 countries for the period 1964-1993 to observe the relationship between budget deficit and economic growth. While he also discovered that the deficit negatively affects the trade balance, it has a positive and significant impact on the economic growth of those countries. World Economic Outlook (IMF, 1996) concluded that during the mid-1980s the group of developing countries had a higher financial imbalance and lower economic growth than countries with low or medium Figure 1. GDP Growth and Budget Deficit in Vietnam from 2007 to 2017 Source: https://countryeconomy.com Impact of budget deficit on growth: A case study of Vietnam 28 Tạp chí Khoa học & Đào tạo Ngân hàng- Số 210- Tháng 11. 2019 budget deficit. Shojai (1999) argued that the budget deficit financed by the Central Bank could also lead to inefficiencies in the financial market and cause high inflation in developing countries while negatively impacting the nation’s real exchange rates and interest rate, thus reducing the nation’s competitiveness. Few studies further support the impact of budget deficit on investment, exchange rate, and real interest rate. Bahmani (1999) investigated the long-run relationship between the U.S. federal real budget deficit and real fixed investment using quarterly data over the 1947I– 1992II period. The methodology was based on the Johansen-Juselius cointegration technique. The results reveal that there are three cointegrating vectors among investment, income, interest rate, and the budget deficits. The estimates of these cointegrating vectors and further analysis show that a cointegrating vector in which all four variables carry their expected signs support the Keynesian view that in the long run the U.S. real federal deficit crowds-in real investment. Gulcan and Bilman (2005) investigated the effect of budget deficit reduction on exchange rate between US dollar and Turkish lira using cointegration methods for the period 1960 to 2003. The research shows that the budget deficit is very important in maintaining the real exchange rate. They argued that the Government must focus on stabilizing the budget because the trade balance is significantly affected by the real exchange rate and has an impact on economic growth. There are studies that have found positive significant relations between budget deficit and growth in both developing and developed countries (IMF 1996), while other studies have found the inverse relationship (Karras, 1994). Lozano (2008) collected quarterly data of last 25 years (1983-2007) and using Vector Error Correction (VEC) model explored a mixed relationship of inflation and money growth with fiscal deficit. Vuyyuri & Seshaiah (2004) studied the interaction of budget deficit in India with other macroeconomic variables such as Nominal effective exchange rate, GDP, Consumer Price Index and money supply (M3) giving special emphasis on the budget deficit-exchange rate relationship using Cointegration approach and VECM for the period 1970-2002. The results reveal that the variables under study are cointegrated and there is a bi-directional causality between budget deficit and nominal effective exchange rates. However, no significant relationship between budget deficit and GDP, Money supply & consumer price index have been found. Fatima et.al (2012) investigated the true impact of the budget deficit on the economic growth of Pakistan. The sample taken for the study was comprised of time- series during the period of 1978-2009. The regression analysis was conducted to ascertain the impact of BD on the GDP, and explored a negative impact of budget deficit on the economic growth. Huynh (2007) conducted his study while collecting data from the developing Asian Countries for the period of 1990 to 2006. He concluded that there is a negative impact of the budget deficit on the GDP growth of those the countries while simply analyzing the trends in Vietnam. Haider et.al (2016) investigated the true impact of a budget deficit on GDP growth. As KHANH TUYET NGUYEN - THANH KHAC HOAI LE 29Số 210- Tháng 11. 2019- Tạp chí Khoa học & Đào tạo Ngân hàng employment rate, exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation also cause an impact on GDP, these variables were considered as control variables along with the budget deficit. The quarterly data of the variables were taken from the period of 2000-2012. Different statistical tests and models (i.e. Unit root test, VAR, Granger Causality) were used to find out the impact of budget deficit on GDP growth. For short run adjustment and co-integrating relation measurement, VEC method was also applied. Both VAR and VEC models were tested based on their stability tests. The results of the research suggest that, there are co-integrating relationships among budget deficit, inflation and exchange rate and there is a negative impact of budget deficit on GDP growth. The relationship between budget deficit and economic growth has been studied by many scholars in Vietnam. Van, V. B., & Sudhipongpracha, T. (2015) assessed the probability of such claims for the Vietnamese government’s fiscal policy between 1989 and 2011. After the introduction of the Doi Moi reform policy in the late 1990s, Vietnam has witnessed high economic growth. Yet, its government’s deficit pattern is among the highest in Southeast Asia. The findings demonstrated that in the case of Vietnam, government deficits had no direct effects on the country’s economic productivity between 1989 and 2011. Instead, the article discovered that foreign direct investment (FDI) played an important role in Vietnam’s economic productivity over the same period, while real interest rates adversely affected the growth. This article concludes that rather than expanding public sector through government spending deficit, Vietnam requires administrative and regulatory reforms to ensure an efficient use of government resources, a continuous flow of foreign capital, and consistent economic growth. Huynh The Nguyen & Nguyen Le Ha Thanh Na (2015), examined the relationship between budget deficit and economic growth in Vietnam using VAR model. The model used secondary data series, including a time series of data from 1990 to 2012. Data was collected from Asian Development Bank including annual economic growth (GDP), government investment (GI), exchange rate (REX), budget deficit (BD) and real interest rate (RIR); from the IMF including real annual growth data (GDP), consumer price index (CPI). In the model, the variables before analysis were processed logarithm transformation to estimate the determination of variation between 1990 and 2012. Research results show that budget deficit has no clear relationship with economic growth, however, government investment is causal with budget deficit and economic growth. Table 1. Independent variables definition Variable Author Explanation Unit Expectation BD Ahmad (2013) Dang Van Cuong & Pham Le Truc Quynh (2015) Budget deficit (budget income < budget expenditure) M.$ - CPI Huynh The Nguyen & Nguyen Le Ha Thanh Na (2015) Consumer Price Index % - FDI Ahmad (2013) Foreign Direct Investment M.$ + Impact of budget deficit on growth: A case study of Vietnam 30 Tạp chí Khoa học & Đào tạo Ngân hàng- Số 210- Tháng 11. 2019 Therefore, to achieve a stable growth in the coming time, the government should implement and control the investment flows as well as effectively manage budget deficit. Dang Van Cuong & Pham Le Truc Quynh (2015) studied the impact of budget deficit on economic growth in some Southeast Asian countries using additional factors: inflation, foreign investment and credit of private sector. To evaluate the regression coefficients of the variables in the model, the authors used a fixed effect model and general least squares method (GLS) for panel data from 2001-2013. Experimental results show that budget deficit, credit in the private sector negatively impact economic growth, foreign investment positively affects economic growth, while inflation is not statistically significant. Su Dinh Thanh (2012) investigated the relation between budget deficit and inflation in Vietnam through an empirical study, a model proposed as following: LP = F (BC, M2, GDP, TOP). LP represents the consumer price index; BC is the budget deficit; M2 is money supply and TOP is trade openness measured through total export/GDP target. The results suggest that the budget deficit has no relationship with long-term inflation, but the impact is statistically significant to short-term inflation. Money supply has a positive impact on inflation in short and long term. But the effect of money supply on inflation in the short term is smaller than in the long term. Trade openness effect is negatively related to inflation in the short and long term. Economic growth has a negative impact on inflation in the short and long terms. 3. Data and variables The objective of this paper is to understand the impact of the budget deficit on Vietnam’s economic growth in the 2007-2017 period with the dependent variables of economic growth. The model is as follows: GDPt = α + β1X1t + β2X2t + + βtXnt + µ Where: GDP is a dependent variable, measured by the annual GDP per capital in US dollars and taken from year-end data. X1, X2, , Xn are independent variables T: Time series, 11 years data from 2007 to 2017 Figure 2. GDP of Vietnam in the 2007 – 2017 period Source: https://countryeconomy.com KHANH TUYET NGUYEN - THANH KHAC HOAI LE 31Số 210- Tháng 11. 2019- Tạp chí Khoa học & Đào tạo Ngân hàng Research using panel data in the period of 2007-2017 in Vietnam, GDP, CPI, FDI and BD data are taken from the website https://countryeconomy.com/; Data is processed by Stata software. The study uses ordinary least squares (OLS) to conduct analysis. In the model, the variables before analysis were processed logarithm transformation to estimate the determination of variation between 2007 and 2017. The model is as follows: GDP= α + β1(BD) + β2(FDI) + β3(CPI) + µ 4. Results and discussions 4.1. Overview of Vietnam’s economic growth in the 2007-2017 period After 10 years of becoming a member of WTO (2007-2017), despite being affected by the global financial crisis and the public debt crisis, Vietnam still maintains an average growth rate of 6,29% per year, except for 2009 at only 5.3%. Figure 2 shows that GDP tends to increase steadily over the years, from 77,520m USD in 2007 to 220,376m in 2017 (an increase of 2.8 times), indicating a relatively high growth rate. The high growth rate is due to improving labor productivity and national competitiveness. However, it is mainly relying on the inputs (capital, labor) and expanding investment, for example: public investment (through monetary and fiscal policy) and credit expansion through loosen monetary policy. 4.2. Budget deficit in Vietnam Table 2. Matrix of correlation coefficient lnGDP lnFDI lnBC CPI lnGDP 1.0000 lnFDI -0.0353 1.0000 lnBC 0.7236 -0.4237 1.0000 CPI -0.5779 0.3100 -0.8610 1.0000 Table 3. Regression results of variables in the model Source SS df MS Number of obs = 11 Model 1.01517961 3 .33839320 F(3, 7) 3.96 Residual .598673531 7 .08552479 Prob > F = 0.0410 Total 1.61385314 10 R-squared = 0.6290 Adj R-squared = 0.4701 Root MSE = .29245 lngdp Coef. Std. Err. t P> | t | [95% Conf. Interval] lnfdi .329887 .2431645 1.36 0.217 -.2451058 .9048797 lnbc .396506 .1749629 2.27 0.058 -0.172156 .8102275 cpi .0147279 .0270525 0.54 0.603 -0.049241 .0786969 _cons 3.607227 5.321968 0.68 0.520 -8.977226 16.19168 Impact of budget deficit on growth: A case study of Vietnam 32 Tạp chí Khoa học & Đào tạo Ngân hàng- Số 210- Tháng 11. 2019 The budget deficit in Vietnam in the 2007-2017 period fluctuated continuously. The proportion of budget deficit in Vietnam is always above 5.5% of GDP, except for 2008 when the budget deficit was at 0.49%, and tends to be unstable and slowly decreasing. According to international practices, under normal conditions the budget deficit accounting for 3% of GDP is considered to be concerning, while the level of 5.5% of GDP is serious. 4.3. Results of empirical research The results in Table 3 show the correlation relationship between dependent variable and independent variables. FDI and CPI have a negative correlation with GDP, while the budget deficit (BD) has a Tài liệu tham khảo 1. Đặng Văn Cường & Phạm Lê Trúc Quỳnh (2015). Tác động của thâm hụt NS đến tăng trưởng kinh tế: Bằng chứng ở các nước Đông Nam Á. Tạp chí Phát triển và hội nhập, 23(33). 2. Huỳnh Thế Nguyễn & Nguyễn Lê Hà Thanh Na (2015). Mối quan hệ giữa thâm hụt ngân sách và tăng trưởng kinh tế ở Việt Nam. Tạp chí phát triển khoa học & công nghệ, 18, 79-90. 3. Sử Đình Thành (2012). Thâm hụt ngân sách và lạm phát: Minh chứng thực nghiệm ở VN. Tạp chí Phát triển Kinh tế, (259), 40-48. 4. Bahmani, O. M. The Federal Budget Deficits Crowd - out or Crowd-in Investment, Journal of Policy Modeling. 21, 633 - 640 (1999). 5. Fatima, G., Ahmed, M., & Rehman, W. (2012). Consequential effects of budget deficit on economic growth of Pakistan. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(7). 6. Gülcan, Y., & Bilman, M. E. (2005). The effects of budget deficit reduction on exchange rate: evidence from Turkey. Dokuz Eylül University DP Series, 5(07). 7. Haider, ASM Shakil & Fatema, Sabrina & Rezaul Kabir, M. (2016). Impact of Budget Deficit on Growth: An Empirical Case Study on Bangladesh. 8. N. D. Huynh, “Budget Deficit and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: The case of Vietnam,” Kansai Institute for Social and Economic Research (KISER), 2007. 9. IMF. World Economic Outlook. Annual Report (1996). 10. I. Lozano, “Budget Deficit, Money Growth and Inflation: Evidence from the Colombian Case,” Borradores de Economia, vol. 537, pp. 1-26, 2008 11. Shojai, S. Budget Deficits and Debt: A Global Perspective. Second Edition, Praeger Publishers, New York, USA (1999). 12. S. I. Al-Khedair, “The Impact of the Budget Deficit on Key Macroeconomic variables in the Major Industrial Countries,” PhD Dissertation, Florida Atlantic University, 1997. 13. Van, V. B., & Sudhipongpracha, T. (2015). Exploring government budget deficit and economic growth: Evidence from Vietnam’s economic miracle. Asian Affairs: An American Review, 42(3), 127-148. 14. Vuyyuri, S., & Seshaiah, S. V. (2004). Budget deficits and other macroeconomic variables in India. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 4(1). 15. https://countryeconomy.com positive correlation with GDP. Prob (F) value in the model is 0.0410 (<5%) shows that there is a linear relationship between dependent variable GDP and independent variables CPI, FDI and BD. Thus, the given linear regression model is appropriate. The R2 coefficient is 0.4701, indicating that the variation of the independent variable has a relatively high effect on the dependent variable with 47.01% level of influence and is statistically significant. This also indicates that there are also many other independent variables not included in the model that explain the dependent variable. There is a statistically significant xem tiếp trang 56 Mô hình bán lẻ sách điện tử- Nghiên cứu trường hợp waka.vn 56 Tạp chí Khoa học & Đào tạo Ngân hàng- Số 210- Tháng 11. 2019 giới và trong nước, từ đó xác định chiến lược đúng đắn trong lựa chọn mô hình phân phối ■ nghiệp có ý định triển khai bán lẻ Ebook nói riêng, các sản phẩm nội dung số khác, để thành công cần tìm hiểu và đánh giá rõ xu hướng phát triển Ebook chung trên thế Tài liệu tham khảo 1. Quang Anh (2017), Thị trường Ebook Việt Nam: Không như kỳ vọng, 2. 3. Ashley Melinis (2011), The Effects of Electronic Books on the Reading Experience of First Grade Students, School of Arts and Sciences St. John Fisher College. 4. BISG (2014), Digital Books and the New Subscription Economy, Book Industry Study Group. 5. Brian Evans (2010), Traditional vs Online Textbook Cost Comparison, Economics Department Foothill College. 6. Chử Bá Quyết, Hoàng Cao Cường (2019), Nghiên cứu sự chấp nhận sách điện tử Ebook của sinh viên tại Việt Nam, Tạp chí khoa học và đào tạo ngân hàng, số 203, tr.63-75. 7. Corlett-Rivera và Hackman (2014), Ebook Use and Attitudes in the Humanities, Social Sciences, and Education, Libraries and the Academy, 14:2 (April 2014): 255-286. DOI: 10.1353/pla.2014.0008. 8. Gibson, C. and Gibb, F. (2011). “An evaluation of second generation e-book readers”. The Electronic Library, 29(3), 303-19. 9. Jan Thomas Sørbø Sviggum & Poul Malthe Mikkelsen (2016), Internet Distributed Books VS. Printed Scholarly Books - A Life Cycle Assessment, School of Business and Social Sciences – Department of Economics and Business Administration, Aarhus University. 10. Jeong, H. (2012). “A comparison of the influence of electronic books and paper books on reading comprehension, eye fatigue, and perception”. Electronic Library, 30(3), 390-408. 11. Larson, J. & Marsh, J. (2005). Making literacy real: theories and practices for learning and teaching. London: SAGE. 12. Lecia Bushak (2015), Books Are Damaging Your Health: Why We Should All Start Reading Paper Books Again, https://www.medicaldaily.com/e-books-are-damaging-your-health-why-we-should-all-start-reading-paper-books- again-317212. 13. Marie Lebert (2009), A Short History of eBooks, University of Toronto, 2009 Copyright © 2009 Marie Lebert. 14. Phương Quyên, Đặng Quý Yên (2016), Thị trường Ebook: Thoái trào?, https://doanhnhansaigon.vn/chuyen-lam- an/thi-truong-sach-dien-tu-thoai-trao-1070095.html 15. PwC (2014), Turning the page: The Future of eBooks. 16. Quốc Hội nước CHXHCN Việt Nam, Luật Xuất bản 2012. 17. Remez Sasson & Karsent, The Benefits and Advantages of eBooks, https://www.successconsciousness.com/Ebooks_ benefits.htm 18. Rosso, S. (2009). What are Ebooks? Advantages and disadvantages of electronic books 19. Rudiger Wischenbart (2016), Global eBook 2016 A report on market trends and developments, Published by Rüdiger Wischenbart Content and Consulting, Vienna ISBN: 978-3-903074-07-1. 20. Shelburne, W.A. (2009). “E-book usage in an academic library: user attitudes and behaviors”. Library Collections, Acquisitions, and Technical Services, Vol. 33 Nos 2/3, pp. 59-72. 21. www.theguardian.com, Ebooks at night won’t help you sleep tight, US study finds 22. www.waka.vn, mục Toàn cảnh waka, Các báo cáo thị trường sách điện tử, https://waka.vn/bao-cao-thi-truong- sach-dien-tu relationship between budget deficit and economic growth (P.value <10%) with a positive impact coefficient (β = 0.396). The coefficient means that when the budget deficit increases by 1 unit, GDP will increase by 0.396 times. Consumer price index (CPI) and foreign direct tiếp theo trang 32 investment (FDI) have no statistically significant impact on economic growth. In conclusion, budget deficit has a positive correlation with economic growth at a statistically significant level, while no significant correlation is found between CPI and FDI with the dependent variable. ■