Kinh tế học - The physician market - Part 1: Professor vivian ho health economics fall 2009

The Physician Market, Part 1Professor Vivian Ho Health EconomicsFall 2009These slides summarize material in Santerre & Neun: Health Economics, Theories Insights and Industry Studies, Southwestern Cengate 2010OUTLINEPhysician Market StructureConduct in the Physician MarketPhysician Market PerformancePhysician Practice Management CompaniesPhysician Market Structure*The AMA defines primary care as including family practice, general practice, internal medicine, obstetrics/gynecology, and pediatrics.Physician Market Structure (cont.)Are there “too many” specialists and “too few” primary care docs?Proportion of specialists in U.S. higher than in W. European countries and Canada (60% vs. 25-50%).Specialists more prone to use new, high-tech medical procedues.May explain why U.S. medical costs per capita are highest in the world.Matching Physician Supply & Requirements“Future physician supply does not appear well-matched with requirements. (Politzer, 1996) A shortage of 33,000 primary care physicians is predicted by 2020.The same set of assumptions also generates a surplus of specialists.Distribution of Physicians by Mode of PracticeMost docs self-employed, but % is dropping.Fall in solo practice docs, rise in salaried docs.Reflects rise in ambulatory care by HMOs.Distribution of Physician Revenues by Source of Payer% of revenues from Medicare/Medicaid high, but lower than for hospital sector.% of revenues paid out-of-pocket also higher than for hospital sector.Managed Care Reimbursement of PhysiciansMCOs hope to modify physician behavior in order to control costs.88% of all practicing docs in 2001 had at least one managed care contract.In 2001, 49¢ of every $1 of physician revenue came from an MCO.Are there barriers to entry?Requirements for licensure to practiceM.D. from accredited med school.Internship or residency at recognized institution.Pass a medical exam.AdvantageProtects public from incompetent doctors.DisadvantageState licensure boards controlled by physicians who can restrict entry to keep salaries high.Is market reform better than government licensure?Market reform may encourage physician monitoring better than government regulation.More salaried docs are being monitored by HMOs.Laws shifting medical malpractice liability towards hospitals and HMOs.For-profit providers have direct financial stake in quality of their physicians.Production, Costs, and Economies of ScaleDo certain physician organizations have a production or cost advantage?Group practice physicians are 22% more productive than those in solo practice. (Brown, 1988).The lowest-cost practice size has been estimated at 5.2 physicians (Pope & Burge, 1996).Economies of scale may exist for practices as large as 100 physicians (Marder & Zuckerman, 1985).Physician Market Structure SummaryPhysicians have outpaced growth in the general population.The U.S. may have too many specialists and too few generalists.A move towards multi-physician practices.Production & cost advantages.Pressures of managed care.Despite barriers to entry, competition is increasing.Physician Market ConductThe legal environment and physician behavior.The impact of managed care on physician conduct.Defensive Medicine & Malpractice ReformPhysician malpractice premiums account for 1% of US health care spending.Physicians may over-provide care in order to avoid malpractice suits.Defensive medicine may add another $4b to $25b to the nation’s health care bill.Defensive Medicine & Malpractice ReformStates which implemented direct reforms to their malpractice system (caps on damages, abolition of punitive damages) reduced hospital expenditures 5 to 9%.Indirect reforms (caps on contingency fees, mandatory periodic payments) had no measurable impact on costs.Why do we have a malpractice system?The malpractice system compensates victims for negligence and deters future negligence.Tort Law: entitles an injured person to compensation as a result of someone’s negligence.Damages include economic losses and “pain and suffering.”PROBLEMS WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEMPhysician AdvocatesToo many of the claims filed are not due to negligence.Juries award large sums unrelated to actual damages.The threat of claims leads to “defensive” medicine, which adds billions to the nation’s health expenditures.PROBLEMS WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEMPatient AdvocatesThe number of claims filed grossly underestimates the extent of physician negligence.Large jury awards are infrequent.Current quality control mechanisms are inadequate.Defensive medicine is a byproduct of generous insurance coverage for patients, not malpractice insurance.Harvard Medical Practice Study(HMPS)1) What is the incidence of “adverse events” and “negligent adverse events” in hospitals?2) What are the total economic losses patients suffer from adverse events? --What fraction is covered by the tort system and other insurance?3) What percentage of adverse events (negligent and non-negligent) lead to malpractice claims?SAMPLEFrom 51 nonfederal, acute care hospitals in New York31,429 patients discharged in 1984Stratified sample based on hospital and patient characteristicse.g. Geographic region, patients in high- risk specialtiesCriteria for an Adverse EventA definable injury caused at least in part by medical management (negligent or not).The injury must have produced measurable disability that prolonged the hospital stay or reduced function at time of discharge.The injury must have been unintended.NEJM 1989Which of the followingis NOT an adverse event?Intracerebral hemorrhage caused by anticoagulantsIncisional herniaAmputation of a gangrenous legFall from a hospital bedFailure to diagnose an ectopic pregnancyNEJM 1989Criterion for a “negligent adverse event”An injury caused by the failure to meet standards reasonably expected of the average physician, other provider, or institution.Rated on a 6-point scale. Little or no evidence Slight evidence 50:50 odds, but close call Strong evidence Virtually certain evidenceWas the following adverse event “negligible?” During a therapeutic abortion after 13 weeks of pregnancy, the physicians unknowingly perforated the patient’s uterine wall with a suction device and lacerated the colon. The patient reported severe pain, but was discharged without evaluation. She returned one hour later to a hospital emergency room with even greater pain and evidence of internal bleeding. She required a two-stage surgical repair over the ensuing four months.Was the following adverse event “negligible?” A patient with peripheral vascular disease required angiography. After the procedure, which was performed in standard fashion, the patient’s renal function deteriorated as a result of exposure to angiographic dye. The hospital course was stormy because of kidney failure, but the patient’s renal function slowly returned to normal. The adverse event caused a prolonged hospital stay.Determination of negligenceis often difficultMany medical procedures are inherently risky. There are uncertainties in diagnoses and treatments.Physicians differ in the quality of care and success rates for reasons other than negligence.Patients’ underlying health conditions differ.Determination of Adverse Eventsfrom Medical RecordsNurses and medical records administrators screened records for signals of adverse events.Examples: Admission to any hospital after discharge, unfavorable drug reaction in hospital, neurologic defect at discharge.Two board-certified internists of surgeons reviewed each screened record.RESULTS31,429 in original sample30,195 locatedon first review22,378 negative forscreening criteria7817 positive forscreening criteria7743 reviewedby physicians6465 withoutadverse events1278 withadverse events972 with nonegligence306 withnegligenceFigure 1. The Record-Review Process.Numbers of medical records are shown.Did the study cases sue for malpractice?Further analysis was limited to 280 negligence cases which occurred or were discovered in the index hospitalization.98 / 31,429 patients filed claims against 151 health care providers.Not all of these patients were victims of negligence, according to HMPS.The sample estimates were re-weighted to represent the population of 2.7m discharges in 1984.STATEWIDE ESTIMATES27,197adverse eventsdue to negligence26,764 with nomalpractice claims (98%)415malpracticeclaims (2%)14,180 withstrong evidenceof negligence12,858 withdisability7462 withdisability6mo (42%)2834 patients<70yo (53%)2562 patients70yo (47%)CONCLUSIONS< 2% of patients identified as victims of negligence filed a malpractice claim.Of the estimated 3570 statewide claims made in 1984, only 415 were defined by HMPS as negligent care. Both patient and physician advocates have legitimate complaints. The current malpractice system does not do a good job compensating victims for negligence.FURTHER RESULTSOnly 50% of patient claims filed eventually receive some compensation.About 1% of negligence victims receive some compensation.The rate of adverse events differs by medical specialty, although the negligence rate is constant.However, negligence rates vary across hospitals.Components of a Capitated Contract Payment methods Capitation rate/schedule - Managed care organizations employ actuaries who predict the cost of care as a function of population characteristicsPhysician Market PerformancePhysician expenditures have slowed in the 1990s, more in line with the growth of the overall economy. But they may be on the rise againPhysician Market PerformanceRevenue per Self-Employed Physician, ($1,000s)Increases in revenues are due to increases in expenses AND higher income for physiciansPhysician salaries remain high When managed care grows, salary growth for specialists slows, while pay for primary care docs risesPhysician groups getting large enough to want their own specialists Female docs’ salaries exceed males in a dozen or so specialtiesEmployed vs. Independent PhysiciansEmployed physicians worked 5-7 fewer hours a weekEmployed physicians’ median net income was $142,000 in 1996, vs. $198,000 for all private-practice physiciansPractice mgmt. Companies typically pay physicians $300,000-$400,000 per physician for practice assets (land, equipment)Tradeoff: 20% of practice’s net revenues