Luận văn Sử dụng hệ lai xây dựng mô hình hỗ trợ ra quyết định marketing

38 CHUONG 3. xi Y DuNG MO HINH HO TRO RA. . QUYET DJNH MARKETING I. H~ HO TRQ RA QUYET BINH (DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM): Ngaynay,cach~th6ngh6trQ'raquYI§tdinhdakhongconlamQtkhaini~m xal~v6inhiSunguoiV6inangh.rccuaminh,maytinhdalamduQ'cnhiSuvi~cma tru6cday,connguaiphaimfitrfitOOiSucongsucm6ilamduQ'c.V6i khanangluu tmqrc100vat6cdQtlnhtoanc\!'cOOaOO,maytlOOduQ'cgiaodamtrachvadahoan thanht6tnhiSunhi~mV\!.Tuynhien,dochim6ilaOOungvi~cn~ngnhQcmacon nguaichuy~ngiaochomaytlOO"lamhQ".Congngh~thongtindaphattri~nvuqt b~ctrongvaith~pkYgAnday,mamQthaOOcongkhongth~khongoo~cd~nlaham luQ'ngch~txamcuaconnguaidAutuchongaOOcongngh~nay.DacomQt~pth~ I dongdaDnhfrngconnguailamkhoahQcchanChlOO,dadAutu -laDdQngkhoahQc nghiemroc.Va sanphftmcuahQ,khongnhungchilaOOUngchi~cmaytlnhcodung luqngc\!'c100,tinhtoanc\!'cOOaOO,malahanglo~tcongngh~-ky thu~t"mSm" khac.Nha co nhfrngky thu~tdo,mamaytlnhbaygia khongchi bi~tlamdum nhtIngcongvi~cn~ngnhQcvanhamchancuaxu ly s6li~u,macach~th6ngduQ'c xayd\lilgtrenmaytlOOngaycangbi~tsuynghIhan,thongmiOOhan.MQttrongs6 39 do,coth~k~d~nlakhanangh6trqconnguaicuacach~h6trqraquy~tdinhthong minh(IntelligentDecisionSupportSystems). Cac h~h6 trq quy~tdinh duqcxay d\lngph\lcV\l nhi€u m\lCdich khac Mall, trongnhung11nhV\lCkhacMall, va sir d\lngky thu~t- congngh~clingrAt khacnhau.Nhungnguaithi~tk~h~th6ng,tuytheotung11nhV\lCC\lth~d.nh6trq madffchQn hungphuongphapthi~tk~vaxaydlJilgphuhQ'P. TrongMarketing,h~h6trqraquy~tdinhdAtitH~nradaivaonhUngnam 1960.Khi do,saukhinh~ ratinhhitud\lngcuamaydi~ntoantrongcongtack~ tmln,qUaily kho... nhungnguailamMarketingchQ'tnaysinhrahang10l;1tCallh6i theosanphcimcotrongcame>t"rung"du li~ucuak~toanvakho... HQcAnco nhUngbaacaotheodl;1ng"troyvAn",vah~th6ngduqcthi~tk~d~tralai nhUngCall h6itroyvAndo. Theothaigian,du li~ubungn6theohammil.Tuynhien,nhucAllv€ du li~uIl;1itangv6it6cde>caohon.NguaitaluoncamthAy"khat"duli~u,vi hinhnhu, trongkhoduli~ukh6ng16dangcotrongtay,"trithuc"hQtimduqcv~nconquait! Kh6i lu'Q-'I1gDL C~lIy~DL ... ..- . - - . -. -..... .-.. ........ .. .. .I" / / / / ./ ./ ./ ,/ . /' ClIngyeDL /',...,; """."" ......-- ------- ....... <II' .. .. .. .. ,,, .. .. ..,, , .. '" '" .. '" .. Thiellh\lt thongtin mnh 3.1.CungvacAlldfrli~utrongng~nhl;1n 40 c~uDL GiaidoanI ..##'........ (;..' .. .""" f --- .r "" I..." 'I "" . ---',/.." c 1 _ . ". .. /' # .. . ungDL .." .1 .. .. .... .. ..' /' .-.---'" /' ."" .J I- -- - ,.,. I G"lal (10.,nII t mnh 3.2.ClingvacAlidftli~uquacacgiaido~ Trongho~tdQngkinht~,nhaqmintri m6ikhi cAnramQtquy~tdinh,hQ cAncothongtin vevfindedangxemxet.Co trongtar mQt1uQ'ngthongtinnhu Mali,trongmQthoancanhbinhthuOng,hatnhaquantri seraclingmQtquy~tdinh, vi do1amQtkhoahQc.Bieukhacbi~tgiframQtquy~tdinhmangl~i"thanhcong han"quy~tdinhkhac,1aa cMmanhaqUailtrj naynh~nthfiymanguaikia thi khong.Nghia1amQtnguaiduQ'ctrangbi thongtint6thoosehyvQngthanhcong han. Ngaynay,cackythu~tthuQclinhV\l'Ccasadfrli~u,nhucasadfrli~uphan tan,datawarehouse,OLAP, clingvaiS\Iphattri~ncuaInternet...dagifrduQ'cmQt . 1UQ'Ilgthongtinkh6ng16,d6ngthai,datra1aiduQ'ckhoang80%yeticAlitroyvfin thuang~pcuacacnhakinhdoanh[14],Coth~1fiyvi dl,llacasadfrli~uvekhach hangcuah~th6ngWa1-Mart's:hi~n aydaxfipxi 50terabytes. Tuy nhien,clingvai S\Itang1enve 1uQ'llgcuadftli~u,dQphuct~pcuadfr li~uclingtang.Cac chi lieu thi danxen,ch6ngcheoMali, tich lUytheothai gian, theonhieud~ctinhphl,lthuQc... Ma vai mQt1uQ'llgthongtin100,l~ithayd6inhanh chong,thivi~cn~mb~tbanchfitcuadfrli~u(trithuctrongdfrli~u)1avi~ckhonghe d€ dang. 41 Va conhi€uhuangnghienclmduQ'cthlJchi~nnh~mkhaithacvan~mb~t trithuctrongduli~uMarketing. - Khaikhoangduli~u:apd\mgd8phathi~ncaclu~tlienk~tv€ m6i lienh~giuanhungsanphftm,giuanhomkhachhangvasanphftmhQmua;lienh~ giuanhungbi~nc6lient\lClenvi~cbansanphftm;phanlaphanhvi khachhang, phanlapruifa;gomnhom...[13]. Cackythu~tmayhQc(MachineLearning):khathanhcangtrongn~m b~tcacqui lu~tMarketingphuct~p,apd\lnghi~uquatrongthlJct~.Co th8k8ra daymQtvaih~th6ng,nhu: . H~qUailtri quailh~khachhang- phankhlicthi truang- dinhhinh khachhangcuaLi [11]. . Ap d\lngthu~tgiaidi truy€nd8t6iuutrongdfiutuvaoMarketingtrlJc ti~pb~ngthutincuaBhattacharya[7]. . H~Bayesianvam~ngnarontrongdlJbaahanhvi muahangcuakhach hangdoKim [10]vaBaesens[6]xaydlJng. . Cheung[8]d€ xuiitsird\lngSupportVectorMachines(SVM) vamQt mahinhphanlapngfimBayesian(LCM) d8xacdinhlu~t/ m6ilienh~ giuathuQctinhcuasanphftmvaSlJthichthlicuanguaitieudungd6i vai sanphftm. Phathi~nquilu~t- dolavi~cmacacmahinhh6iquytuy~ntinhdalam d6ivaikhoduli~u.Tuynhien,h6iquytuy~ntinhdakhangth8dapirngduQ'cSlJ bungn6cuacacd~iluQ'ng,clingnhudQphuct~pcuamahinhbaygiadalaphi tuyen.Cackythu~tcuath6ngke,tITlau,vadengia,v~ndangdongvaitrochuch6t trongnghienclmMarketing- khauquailtrQnganhhuangtflJcti~pdenvi~cramQt quyetdinhMarketing.Nhungd~ngsaunhungcons6doconnhi€udi€u khachan nua.Va n~mduQ'caima"trungbinh","dQphantan"khangnoi raduQ'cla chia 42 khoad€ com9tquy~tdjnhmangl~i"thanhconghan"quy~tdjnhcuad6ithucua minh. M~ngnOTonla congCl)rAtt6tchovi~cxApxi ham- phathi~nquilu~t. M~ngnOTonv6'i l6'pAndaduQ'ccht'rngminh rfuIgn~uco du s6 nut, s6 l6'p,no co th€ xApxi bAtkYd~nghamphituy~nao.Nghlalam~ngnOTonseluontimduQ'cm6i lienh~giitakhonggiandfiuvito- khonggiank~txuAtcuaditli~u- m9tkhi duQ'c clingcApt~pm~uluy~ndungvaduo Ly thuy~tmadaclingcApkhanangduanhitngkhaini~m"trimtUQ'llg" (v6'imaytinh)cuangonngitWnhienvitotrongcach~th6ngmaytinh.Nghlalabay gia,noir~ng"An IRE" thicoth€ u6'cluQ'llgduQ'ctu6icuaAn khoangbaanhieu. Tru6'cday,cach~chuyengiadag~pnhi€u khokhankhi motacacthu~tngit,khai ni~mthu9Cchuyenganh- saochomaytinhcoth€ hi€u - vachuyengiathu9C11nh Vl)'Cdo thAyquellthu9C.N~ukhong,khi do phai co m9tchuyengia v€ maytinh ng6igiitad€ lamvi~c"thongdjch"chochuyengia"may"vachuyengia"nguai". Ngoaifa,congngh~maclingchophepnguaita"nh~pnhfuIg"- khicfinluQ'llghoa m9thi~ntuQ'ngquaphuct~p,congvi~cmatru6'cdayrAtkhokhand€ thl)'chi~n,thi baygia,nguaitacoth€ dungcackhaini~mmad€ xu ly.Nangll)'clamvi~ccuah~ th6ngduQ'cmar9nghan,gfingliihan. Ngaynay,corAtnhi€uh~h6trQ'raquy~tdjnhMarketingduQ'cxaydl)'ng, nhuBRANDAID, CALLPLAN, ADCAD ... Cach~th6ngnayho~tdQngtrongm9t khungk~thQ'pgiitacO'saditli~u,caccongCl)phantichth6ngke;cungv6'itrithuc d€ ho~td9ngnhum9th~chuyengia. 43 II. MARKETING vA VAN DE HO TRO RA. QUYET DJNH: H~th6ngki~mtra Marketing H~th6ngI~pk~ ho~chMarketing H~th6ngthongtin Marketing H~th6ngt5chilcth\lc hi~nMarketing mnh 3.3.H~th6ngho~td9ngMarketing KhcichhangIad6ituqngmamQin6Il!cMarketingphaihuangVaGd€ th6a mannhucducuahQ.Nhungn6Il!cMarketingd6th€ hi~nqua4y~ut6Marketing- mixIa:sanphAm,gicica,phanph6ivaxucti~nh6nhQ'P[1]. Ti~n Giai do:;tn chinmu6iGiai do:;tn tung san phftm vitothi truang Giai do:;tn ph~t trien 44 Giaido:;tn suythoai L<Ji nhu~n Thai gian IDnh3.4.Cacgiaido:;tntrongchukys6ngcuasanphAm MQtsanphftmtru6ckhidu<Jctungvitothitruangphaitniiquanhi~ugiai do:;tn.Cacnhathi€t k€ sanphftmphaifightradu<Jcd~ctinhnaocuasanphftmm6i selamchonokhacv6inhungsanphftmhi~nco- dola ly domanguaitasemua sanphftmm6inay.Saukhicoy tu6TIgthi€t k€, nghiencUuMarketingseti€n hanh di€u trava chobi€t co baanhieuphAntramkhachhanglAylamthichthtiv6i Y tu6TIgm6inay.Saukhivuqtquadu<Jcdqtdi~utranay,sanphAmm6idu<Jcdua vitosanxuAtthirnghi~m.Sanphftmthirnghi~ml:;tidu<Jcdemdi dungthir,vak€t quathamdosechobi€t sov6im6cbandAti,sanphftmthirnghi~mda:ch:;tmt6iyeti cAlichua?N€u chua,khauthi€t k€ phailaml:;ti.N€u quadu<Jc,sanphAmm6ichinh thucdu<Jcdi vitosanxuAtd:;titravatungrathitruang.Vi chiphi dAtitu congngh~, thi€tbi ..chom6imQtsanphftmm6ithuangrAt100,nencaccongtyluonluonphai chilcchilnv€ hi~uquamangl:;ticuavi~cdAtitu - b~ngcack€t quadi€u tra.N€u khongcocO"savungchilc,hQsekhonglam.Va do ding la ly dot:;tisaocacd\l an nghiencuuMarketing,m~cdum6i IAndi€u tra la rAtt6nkern,nhungcaccongty v~nkhongng:;tichi phi d€ th\lchi~ndi€u tra.Vi k€t quadi~utrachohQmQtcO"sa d€ quy€t dinh. 45 MQtsanphAmtraiquanhi~ugiaido~ khacnhautrongchukYs6ngcua minh.M6i giaido~ndeml~imQthi~uquakhacnhauchodoanhnghi~p.Va m6i thayd6i lienquaildenmQtrong4 yellt6cuaMarketing-mixd~uanhhuangden hi~uquanay.Nguaitac6g~ngduytri giaido~ phattri€n vachinmu6icuasan phAmb~ngnhi~ucachkhacnhau. Tuynhien,m6ilo~isanphAml~ic6nhil'ngd~ctrungrieng.N~mduQ'cd~c trungnaythinhil'ngn6h.rcMarketingsemangl~ihi~uquacaoban.Thi dl,lnhu giil'ahaidongsanphAmA vaB. DongsanphAmA la sanphAmlAyruagiadl,lng, dongB lamyphAmchams6cdam~t.ThichinhsachgiacuahaidongsanphAmnay semangl~ihi~uquakhacnhau.S\l giamgiakhuyenmai"conmQtmra"cuaA c6 th€ lamtangmuclieuthl,lrAtcao,IQ'inhu~nclingtangtheedoanhs6.Nhungdong sanphAmB b6nggiamgia1/3thoi,c6th€ mQinguaisenghinga:t~isac?Vi B la sanphAmmakhidung,nguaitacfinc6ni~mtinvaochAtluqngcaothihQm6'imila. Dqtgiamgiac6th€ lamnguailieudungnghir~ngch~chAtluqngclinggiamthee gia.Va hQsekhongmila,vi khongmu6nthirnghi~mdam~tminhv6'isanphAm giamgiad6.... Va m6ikhith\lChi~nmQtchinhsachm6'iv~sanphAm,v~gia,phanph6i, khuyenmai,quangcao,dichVl,lsailbanhang... congty lamdi~utrav~danhgia cuakhachhangd6iv6'ithayd6id6.HQcfinbietkhachhangc6thichthu,quailtam denthayd6id6haykhong,c6vi themahQmilahangthemkhong...d€ rutkinh nghi~mchonhil'ngsanphAmsailnay.Khi lamnhil'ngcuQcsosanhgiuanhungthay d6id6,cacnhaqUailtri cfinmQthu6'cdod€ danhgiahi~uquamangl~ichocong ty[3]. MQtchienluQ'chi~ndangduQ'caccongty16'nsirdl,lnglacungmQtnhan hi~usanphAm,nhungtrongthaigianrAtng~n,thayd6imQtinhchAtsanphAm,r6i tungrathi truanglamchonguailieudungnhfimtu6ngr~ngd6la mQtsanphAm hoanloanm6i,v6'id~ctinhhanh~nsanphAmhi~nc6.V~ylasanphAmcli khong guythoai,vfintieptl,lCkeDdaigiaido~nchinmu6icuaminh. 46 D6i v6inguaitieudung,vi~cchQnIlJasanph~mmiod~sird\lngclingrftt khokhan.HQdUngtru6cmQt"rung"OOanhi~u,du<)'cquangCaDlent~nmayxanh v6inhil'ngd~cdi~m"tuy~thao".Nhungkhimua,hQsechQnsanph~mnao?Theo cacchuyengiaMarketing,cohaitieuchihangdAtid~nguaitieudungchQnmua mQtsanph~m:OOanhi~usanph~mvatiOOdQcdaDcuasanph~m.Longtin(cacOOa Marketingdungthu~tngil'"trungthanh")cuanguaitieudungd6iv6imQthuang hi~ukhi€n hQit thayd6ikhichQnsanph~m.Va thuanghi~udot~odu<)'clongtin khimacacsanph~mhQduaradu<)'cdanhgiala"dQcdao".ComQt"lu~t"nhusau: datin,dadQcdaD,thiseMUA. Va congthucnaysedu<)'capd\lngtrongmohiOO sApxaydlJng:khi co du<)'cdaOOgiacuanguaitieudungd6iv6imQtieuchicua sanph~mm6i,mohiOOcoth~"aOOx~"thaOOchitieut6nghQ'P"giadiOO"cuasan ph~mnay(giadinhvi sanph~mm6ichuacoducacchitieud~daOOgiat6nghQ'P). 47 ",' - '% ~ III. MO HINH H¥ HO TRQ RA QUYET BINH MARKETING (MARKETING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM) - MDSS: 1.M{lClieu-Hlfunggiiiiquyit: Mo hinh(segilamohinhMDSS)d€ nghisird\mgdi€msf>la thu6cdo cacgiatriMarketingquanHim. Khi dungtru6cmOtvAnd€ cAnh6trq,dincud€ xemxetvaquy€tdinhla di€msf>cuachitieudangcov6icacdi€msf>lienquantrongcO'saduli~u. D€ xayd\lngduqcmohinhtinhdi€m sf>,cAnco: - Cacduli~uthodi€u trakhachhangcuacacd\lannghienClruMarketing trongquakhu. - Du li~uthov€ doanhsf>bansanphAm,thiphAncuasanphAmt~ithai di€m lamd\l annghienClruMarketing- clingcApbai cacphongbannOibOlien quan. - CacdanhgiacuachuyengiaMarketingv€ quanh~giuak€t quadi€u tra dovamuctieuth\lcuasanphAmtrenthitruangt~ithaidi€mnghienClru. - Tri thucchuyengiaMarketingtrongxayd\lngthangdi€mdanhgiamuc dOtf>t/khongtf>t-d~t/khongd~tcuacacchitieu. - Tri thucchuyengiaMarketingkhi chnl\lanhUngchi tieugopphAn quy€tdinhvaochitieut6nghqpcuasanphAm. SaukhidaconhUngthongtintren,xemnhumohinhdaduqctrangbidu ki€n thucd€ ph\lcV\lcongtach6trqraquy€tdinhsaunay.Nhuv~y,m6ikhicAn he;trqraquy€tdinh,mohinhcAnthongtindAuvaola sf>li~uthodi€u trakhach hangv€ chitieuquantam.Tirduli~uthodo,mohinhaM x~thanhdi€msf>cuachi tieu,vaduaracacdi€msf>lienquand€ nguaicAnh6trqcomOtcMnhinchinhxac 48 v8vi tri cuaminhhi~nthaitrenthitwanglanhuth8nao,d\fbaatuanglaiminhse (ykhofmgnao,detird6c6mQtquy8tdinhphilhQ'p. Nhu dffd8 c~p(ychuang1,nghienclmMarketingla vi~clamthuang xuyenvakhongthethi8uduQ'cuamQtdoanhnghi~pkhihoC;ttdQngtrenthitwang. Thuth~pduli~uthov8lahoanthanhbu6'c1,cacchuyengiaMarketingb~tdatixu 1;'phantichduli~utholabu6'c2cuamQtd\fannghienClmMarketing. Mo hinhduQ'cxayd\fngkhongphailamQth~th6ngd6ng- nghlalahQc mQtIanr6itralai t.1tcacaccalih6i.Mam6ikhicanh6trQ',mohinhcanduli~utho cuacuQcdi8utrakhachhanglienquail.Tirduli~uthod6,mohinhsud\lngtrithuc cuadungchungloC;tisanphftmdangxetdeanhXC;tthanhdiems6. * M1}.ctieDxayd.,ngmoblnb bBtrQ'ra quy~tdlnb Marketing: Tirnhungduli~urairC;tcvathuantuyladuli~u,tichIllyvananglenthanh trithuc- trithucv8tirngchungloC;tihangh6a.D6ngthai,vi~csud\lngnhungdanh giacuachuyengiatrongquakhu,clingla t\fxayd\fngtri thucchuyengiachoh~ th6ng.NhungtrithucnayseduQ'csud\lngdetirmQtdativaoladuli~uthodi8utra khachhang,datiraseladiems6danhgiavi th8cuachitieusov6'icacsanphftm clingloC;tihi~nc6trenthitwang.Sud\lngdiems6nay,cacchuyengiaMarketing hoantoanquy8tdinhduQ'cminhselamgiti8ptheo. Nhu v~y,mohinhnh~mclingc.1pthongtin"ch.1tluQ'ngcao"chovi~cra quy8tdinhcuachuyengia,chukhongphailamoph6ngquatrinhraquy8tdinhcua connguair6ideh~th6ngt\fd8lightgiaipharoGiasucuQcdi8utrakhachhangv8 tinhdQcdaDcuasanphftmchok8tquasau: C6 2%khachhangdanhgiatC;tmduQ'c. Co 4%khachhangdanhgiadC;tt. C6 15%cholakha. Conl?i 79%khachhangdanhgiar.1tdQcdaD. 49 H~thfmgseduaramQtk~tlu~nnhuth~nay:"SanphAmcuab~nv€ tinh dQcdaoduQ'c8.29di€m,trongkhi cacsanphAmClInglo~icuacongty chungta dangcodi€mtrungbinhla7.26,vatrungbinhtoanthitw<mgla 5.85".N~udola sanphAmm6ichuAnbi tungrathitwang- b~ncoquy~tdinhtungsanphAmm6i dorakhong,haysev€ thi~tk~l~isanphAm,khimachi~nluQ'chanhdQngcuacong tyb~ndangchQndQcdaola tieuchihangdAtichomQtsanphAm?Calltralai da rarang.