On input-Output economic models in disaster impact assessment

In Ref. [229], some reflections are proposed on the emerging challenges and opportunities for I/O analysis: exploiting increasing volumes of data available and fostering estimation capabilities; integrating the I/O analysis framework with other techniques; tackling the study of global supply chains, emerging economies and global cities; expanding regional accounting systems; exploiting multipliers; favor supply chain literacy in conjunction with the evolution of Internet of Things; increasing the frequency of I/O tables computation, taking into consideration both the national and inter-country dimensions. In this paper, in particular, we addressed the relationships between I/O modeling and the assessment of economic losses associated to disasters resulting from both natural and man made hazards. The relevance of I/O models in the context finds a huge plus in their moderate data requirements and their ability to combine with other analysis techniques, such as technological models or market behavioral descriptors. In this sense, they could maintain a relevant role in policy support, especially for large scale impact analysis, and in determining a cost-effective use of resources [230]. We documented the recent evolution of the discipline to support a better understanding, measuring and counteracting of complex disasters scenarios affecting societies and economies. Theoretical problems and practical case studies explored in research often involve complementary views of rippling phenomena, including both backward and forward aspects of propagation. The literature has considerably expanded and extended classical demand- and supply-driven I/O formulations to take into account the dynamics of critical events and crisis response. The interaction with other disciplines, such as complex network theory, also aims at addressing some of the emerging problems, such as the large-scale behavior of interacting economies and supply L. Galbusera, G. Giannopoulos International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 30 (2018) 186–198 194chains. Resilience analysis of economic systems also represents an opportunity for an evolved approach to I/O modeling, involving a continuous dialog with complementary analysis frameworks.

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stance in some of the already mentioned models such as ARIO. Moreover, the combination of I/O models and econometric models has been considered in the literature [208,209]. Instances in- clude INFORUM models [210] and FIDELIO 2, a fully interregional dynamic econometric long-term I/O model for the EU and beyond [211]. In some cases, analysis frameworks have also been constructed by involving multiple techniques among those reviewed above in this section. Such is the case of the multistep procedure proposed in Ref. [212], which addresses direct loss assessment, economic shock, pre- recovery period, recovery period and total consequences. The method contemplates the exploitation of the basic equation and of the ARIO model at specific analysis stages. A generalized dynamic I/O framework is proposed in Ref. [213] by combining intertemporal dynamic mod- eling principles with the intratemporal representation of production L. Galbusera, G. Giannopoulos International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 30 (2018) 186–198 193 and market clearing. The approach allows to consider both demand and supply constraints and has a strong nexus with static and dynamic Leontief models as well as with SIMs. Another interesting trend in dynamic analysis is that of merging the advantages of the I/O-based economic representation with that of heterogeneous modeling components, able to track more specifically dynamical features of systems involved in the disaster scenarios under consideration. Examples of matchings with technological models can be found for instance in Ref. [214] (transportation network) and [215] (electrical transmission grid). Other recent references include [212], integrating of the I/O framework with a biophysical model for flood risk assessment, and [216], proposing a combined I/O technique and system dynamics ecological model. 5. I/O models and resilience assessment Resilience in economic systems is a central topic in today's research in disaster impacts assessment and mitigation. Aspects of great interest include the definition and measurement of this property [217] as well as the associated policy implications [218]. Recently, a number of characterizations of economic resilience relevant to multi-industry re- presentations have been provided in [219,220]. The latter reference, in particular, qualifies this notion as focusing more on flow losses than on stock losses. Additionally, it defines static economic resilience as “the ability of a system to maintain function when shocked”, while dynamic economic resilience in terms of “hastening the speed of recovery from a shock”. Moreover, it is possible to distinguish between inherent (built- in) and adaptive (arising out of ingenuity under stress) aspects of a resilient economic behavior, as well as between final customer-side and business-side resilience measures. In turn, the latter ones can be broken up as follows, taking into account the double nature of businesses as customers of intermediate goods and suppliers: • customer-side measures: these represent ways for the different in- dustries to effectively exploit available input resources in order to minimize impacts on their own activity; • supplier-side measures: here the focus is on the ability of businesses to keep delivering service. For both cases, the reference discusses a categorized series of resilience options. Micro-, meso- and macroeconomic levels are taken into ac- count in this study. Finally, resilience indicators and indexes from the literature are assessed. Traditional approaches to impact analysis based on I/O models are challenged in providing resilience-oriented interpretations of economic systems and applications, as resilience “places greater emphasis on flex- ibility and responding effectively to the realities of disequilibria, as opposed to unrealistically smooth equilibrium time-paths” [221]. In recent years, remarkable efforts have been made by the scientific community in the use of I/O techniques to address various aspects of resilience analysis. In the first place, I/O structures are being studied in the literature as possible determinants of shock response and resilience attributes of economies. This topic is inherent, for instance, to a number of works on structural analysis and on network-theoretical methods. Moreover, empirical validation has been performed in recent works, especially in a regional perspective. For instance, I/O methods are employed in Ref. [222] to assess regional labor market resilience. Adopting an evolu- tionary approach, the two phases of shock and recovery are considered. Key factors of regional resilience are identified in embeddedness, re- latedness and connectivity, where the first reflects the dependency of shock propagation on the I/O structure of the region, while the other two are associated to intersectoral and interregional labor mobility. Another case can be found in Ref. [223], combining I/O modeling and shift-share analysis to assess regional resilience to economic crisis. Furthermore, resilience concepts, factors and metrics have been integrated in some of the models illustrated above in this paper, especially with reference to some of the dynamic frameworks. For in- stance, as mentioned, the DIIM was complemented in Ref. [199] with the representation of the buffering capabilities provided by inventories, while in [198] the inventory DIIM was also enriched considering dif- ferent types of recovery paths. The DIIM is also studied in Ref. [224] through the concepts of static and dynamic economic resilience and the related resilience triangle representation, see [225]. Attributes such as robustness, rapidity, redundancy and resourcefulness allow the for- mulation of resilience metrics, including the time-averaged level of inoperability, the maximum loss of sector functionality and the time to recovery. A combined demand- and supply-driven I/O analysis frame- work for resilience assessment was introduced in Ref. [107]; in the considered port disruption application, resilience measures were iden- tified in terms of: ship re-routing; export diversion; use of inventories; conservation; unused capacity; input substitution; import substitution; production recapture (rescheduling). A risk management perspective has also been adopted in proposing the exploitation of I/O models for resource allocation and prioritiza- tion. For instance, the IIM has been exploited in Ref. [226] to address preparedness considerations in a multi-regional perspective. Also, in Ref. [200] inventory resources allocation has been considered in the DIIM by means of an optimization technique taking into account in- operability, inventory costs and technical constraints. Resilience me- trics and aspects of the failure and recovery processes reverberate in a number of recent formulations of optimization problems for I/O sys- tems. One such example is [227], wherein an extended Leontief I/O model is embedded into an energy-economic resilience optimization problem. This relates to the determination of “the minimum level of ex- trinsic resource recovery investments required to restore the production levels sufficiently, such that the total economic impacts do not exceed a stipulated level over a stipulated post-disruption duration”. Finally, decision theory has also benefited from the assimilation of I/O techniques and datasets towards the formulation of resilience assessment methods, see for in- stance [228]. 6. Conclusions In Ref. [229], some reflections are proposed on the emerging challenges and opportunities for I/O analysis: exploiting increasing volumes of data available and fostering estimation capabilities; in- tegrating the I/O analysis framework with other techniques; tackling the study of global supply chains, emerging economies and global cities; expanding regional accounting systems; exploiting multipliers; favor supply chain literacy in conjunction with the evolution of Internet of Things; increasing the frequency of I/O tables computation, taking into consideration both the national and inter-country dimensions. In this paper, in particular, we addressed the relationships between I/O modeling and the assessment of economic losses associated to disasters resulting from both natural and man made hazards. The re- levance of I/O models in the context finds a huge plus in their moderate data requirements and their ability to combine with other analysis techniques, such as technological models or market behavioral de- scriptors. In this sense, they could maintain a relevant role in policy support, especially for large scale impact analysis, and in determining a cost-effective use of resources [230]. We documented the recent evolution of the discipline to support a better understanding, measuring and counteracting of complex dis- asters scenarios affecting societies and economies. Theoretical problems and practical case studies explored in research often involve com- plementary views of rippling phenomena, including both backward and forward aspects of propagation. The literature has considerably ex- panded and extended classical demand- and supply-driven I/O for- mulations to take into account the dynamics of critical events and crisis response. The interaction with other disciplines, such as complex net- work theory, also aims at addressing some of the emerging problems, such as the large-scale behavior of interacting economies and supply L. Galbusera, G. Giannopoulos International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 30 (2018) 186–198 194 chains. Resilience analysis of economic systems also represents an op- portunity for an evolved approach to I/O modeling, involving a con- tinuous dialog with complementary analysis frameworks. References [1] Y. Okuyama, J.R. Santos, Disaster impact and input-output analysis, Econ. Syst. Res. 26 (1) (2014) 1–12. [2] G. Pescaroli, D. Alexander, A definition of cascading disasters and cascading ef- fects: going beyond the toppling dominos metaphor, Planet@ Risk 3 (1) (2015) 58–67. [3] D. 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