Sea-Level rise and resilience in Vietnam and the AsiaPacific: A synthesis

iment yield declines, and SLR. This makes Ca Mau and the southern part of the Mekong-delta one of the most threatened hot spots worldwide (Alongi, 2015). 3.3.5. Wetlands Global: Together with mangroves, swamps and lagoons support a rich coastal biodiversity Luc Hens, et al./Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences 40 (2018) 141 and provide important ecosystem services. The impact of SLR on both mangroves and wetlands is an important indicator for the threats to biodiversity. Wetlands cover an estimated 6% of the earth’s land. Next to harboring an impressive biodiversity, they provide multiple bio- physical (ecological, hydrological, biochemi- cal), socio-economic services, and scenic beauty. Marine vegetated habitats (seagrasses, salt marshes, macro-algae and mangroves) e.g. occupy 0.2% of the ocean surface, but contribute 50% of carbon burial in marine sediments. They are threatened by the inten- sive and fast developing use (urbanization, ag- riculture, aquaculture, industrialization, tour- ism) people make of the coastal areas. De- pending on the region 30-90% of the wetlands worldwide have been destroyed or are highly impacted. Climate change scenarios, including SLR forecasts, predict additional stress on wetlands as a result of flooding and tempera- ture changes (Junk et al., 2013). By 2080, SLR could cause the loss of up to 22% of the world’s coastal wetlands. Combined with oth- er losses due to direct human action, as win- ning land, up to 70% of the world’s coastal wetlands could be lost by the 2080s (Nicholls, 1999). In view of their importance in the car- bon balance, the loss of a third of the global cover of these ecosystems involves a loss of CO2-sinks and the emission of the same greenhouse gas Duarte et al., 2013). Coastal wetlands are particularly vulnera- ble to increasing sea levels. As the sea rises, the edges of the marshes, tidal flats, and swamps erode, and new wetlands will emerge in currently dry areas. The newly formed wet- lands could well be much more limited in sur- face than the areas lost. Wetlands in zones with small tide ranges are most vulnerable. With a 50cm SLR, losses of 46-59% of global coastal wetlands are expected. With a 110cm SLR the figure increases to 78% (Spencer et al., 2016). Also the environmental quality of the coastal marshes is closely related with the status of the wetlands. Asia-Pacific: The islands in the Pacific (next to these in the Caribbean and the Indian Ocean) are expected experiencing the largest relative increase in SLR and flood risk. In the Yellow Sea region of East Asia tidal wetlands protect over 60 million people from storms and inundations. In this area urban, in- dustrial and agricultural developments make tidal flats disappearing at a rate of 1.2% annu- ally during the past 30 years. Historical refer- ences show that up to 65% of the tidal flats were lost during the past 50 years, which makes the protection and the restoration of the remaining coastal ecosystems imperative (Murray et al., 2014). Also projections of likely situations in the future point to South-East Asia as a most vul- nerable region. A study on the impact of SLR on the wetlands in 86 developing countries pointed to East Asia and the Pacific as two of the four most threatened areas worldwide. The islands in the Pacific are expected experienc- ing the largest relative increase in flood risk. Among the 6 countries which will bear most wetland losses, Vietnam and China are men- tioned (Blankespoor et al., 2014). Vietnam: Central Vietnam hosts North of Da Nang some of the most beautiful and di- verse wetlands of the world. The over-all situ- ation of the wetlands in the country is compa- rable with this around the Yellow Sea. The affected and threatened area of Vietnamese wetlands is estimated covering 1.700 km2, which coincides with 60% of the country’s wetlands. A one meter SLR, which is quali- fied as possible under the prevailing PCR sce- narios, is expected resulting in the loss of 40.000 km2 of land, among which 5.000 km2 of rice paddy in the northern Red River delta and 20.000 km2 in the southern Mekong River estuary and delta. This would seriously affect the populations living in these areas, not only societally and economically, but also in their Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences, 40(2), 126-152 142 migration and relocation patterns (Tran Hong Hanh, 2017). Moreover, the problem is not only about surface loss. The main Vietnamese delta wetlands provide a diversity of recog- nized services to rice agriculture (Berg et al., 2017). Over-all, although coastal and delta wet- lands are seriously threatened by SLR, wet- lands will survive. While many of the existing ones will disappear, they will move in the lower lying areas beyond their current bor- ders. Landward barriers of lagoons will retreat through continuous migration. Also the hyp- sometry will adapt during the retreat process. The extent to which they will survive is diffi- cult to predict as this largely depends on how human impacts interact with rapid SLR, and socio-economic factors that influence the transgression into adjacent land (Kirwan and Megonigal, 2013). 3.3.6. Urban environments Global: SLR threatens primarily low- elevation coastal zones (LECZ - less than 10m above sea level) and cities in particular. The threat of permanent inundation affects large groups of people both globally and locally. Worldwide LECZ account for an estimated 2.3% of the total land area of all coastal coun- tries, but 10.9% of the population in 2000. The average population density by that time was 241 people per km2 , which is 5 times the global mean of 47 people per km2 (Neumann et al., 2015a). Locally, in Miama-Dade Coun- ty, Florida, for example, a uniform elevation of 90cm SLR would permanently inundate the residences of 5% of the population (Kopp et al., 2014). Next to the current situation, forecasts foresee that SLR mediated coastal flooding will increase mainly because the low elevation urban land near the coast will increase. In 2000, about 30% of the global urban land was located in high-frequency flood zones; by 2030 this figure is expected to increase to 40%. The surface of this urban land, world- wide, exposed to flood hazards is expected to increase 2.7 times by 2030 (Güneralp et al, 2015). Not only the area at risk of SLP increases, also the number and the share of people living in these LECZ expands. Projections based on different models, taking into account a wide range of variables and uncertainties foresee a growth of the population in these areas from 625 million in 2000 to 879-949 million by 2030. By 2060 the LECZ are expected to host 1.4-11.3 billion people (coinciding with 534 people per km2 under the lowest assumption (Neumann et al., 2015a). This increase of ur- ban dwellers is the combined result of auton- omous growth (fertility) and the net national and international in-migration driven by the socio-economic-cultural attraction of cities. These trends not only put more people at risk, but also alter biodiversity and critical ecosys- tem services which further put the sustainabil- ity of megacities under stress. Several policy options exist to safeguard people and the urban assets from SLR associ- ated floods. Spatial planning, preventing peo- ple to live in the LECZ at risk is the most in- dicated way protecting cities from floods. Moreover, next to technical-engineering in- terventions as dikes and wave-breaks, increas- ing attention is given to adaptation of green infrastructure and “eco-efficient” vulnerability reducing and urban resistance increasing miti- gation measures. In establishing and develop- ing these policies integration and coordina- tion, promoting participation and the adaptive capacity of vulnerable groups, were identified as main challenges facilitating over-all urban resilience (Anguelovski et al., 2014). Floods present society significant bills and increasingly impact budgets at all levels. Av- erage global flood losses in 2005 were esti- mated at US$ 6 billion, increasing to an esti- mated US$ 52 billion by 2050 (Hallegate et al., 2013). Luc Hens, et al./Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences 40 (2018) 143 Also the global costs of protecting the coast with dikes demand annual investment and maintenance costs estimated at US$ 12-71 billion in 2100 (taking into account one has to prepare for larger disasters than we experience today. These high amounts of money are however much smaller than the cost of avoid- ed damage, even without accounting for indi- rect costs of damage to regional production supply (Hinkel et al., 2014). Asia-Pacific: Research on urban SLR re- sponses is characterized by a geographical bi- as towards cities in economically more devel- oped countries. More recently also cases in Asia have been published (CastanBroto and Bulkeley, 2013; Muis et al., 2025). Over-all in developing countries in Asia the surface of LECZ is expected to increase faster than in industrialized countries (Güneralp et al., 2015). On the Indonesian islands, urban expan- sion is particularly rapid in Java, which ac- counts for 79% of the national increase. From 2000 to 2030 increases in exposure will ele- vate the flood risk on average by 76% and 120% for river and coastal floods (Muis et al., 2015). Also when it comes to the population liv- ing in the LECZ, Asia had most people in 2000 (461 million or 73% of the global LECZ population), and this is expected being the case also in 2030 and 2060. The Indonesian archipelago, Vietnam, China, India and Bang- ladesh are the 5 countries worldwide with the largest population share living in LECZ (Neumann et al., 2015). Within the cities the peri-urban areas need specific attention. Peri-urban areas in East Asia are expected to expand by 40% of the total projected population growth. On policy, a study reviewing the responses to SLR in 100 big (over 1.3 million inhabitants) revealed that developing countries performed as well as in- dustrialized countries on adaptation, carbon sequestration, transport, urban form and infra- structure actions. Only actions concerning the built environment (energy efficiency, low car- bon energy, water efficiency) were lagging behind in developing countries (CastanBroto and Bulkeley, 2013). This illustrates that ur- ban SLR policies go beyond restricting e.g. the development of low-lying land, but merely focus on constructive actions. To guide the responses to SLR that are socially and envi- ronmentally sustainable, urban planning needs to: - Facilitate local ownership of adaptation responses. - Promote action within and between the urban communities and with the authorities. - Be fair in its application across space and time (Hurliman et al., 2014). In conclusion, there is increasing evidence that in South-East Asia these major SLR re- lated changes have implications for the exist- ing environmental, social and economic systems. Vietnam: Vietnam provides a series of pro- nounced illustrations of the global trends and the situation in Asia Pacific. Urban develop- ment increases flood risks along the coast and in the main deltas, due to local changes in hy- drological and hydro-meteorological condi- tions. Can Tho, as the biggest city of the Mekong River Delta, which faced impacting floods during recent years, illustrates the complexity of the problems in low elevation delta cities. The city faces: - The effects of a 3 mm SLR during recent years, resulting in an expected 9-88 cm rise by 2100. - An expected increase of climate change mediated river runoff. - Increased urban runoff driven by imper- viousness. - More extreme rainfall as a result of the urban heat island effect of the expanding city. The results of models combining these fac- tors show that the flooding risk in Can Tho Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences, 40(2), 126-152 144 increases significantly. In particular vulnera- ble areas and poorer communities will be af- fected. The increase in the peri-urban area of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam’s most important economic driver, and the biggest metropolitan in the South of the country, grew between 1990 and 2012 by converting 660.2 km2 of cropland. During this period 3.5 million peo- ple moved into the region, bringing the total population to nearly 12 million by 2012. These data illustrate the peri-urbanization in the region (Kontgis et al., 2014). In spite of these stressing situations Vietnam’s policy is not always in line with the SLR associated threats. The urban growth ambitions of the city of Quy Nhon provide an example. In spite of a recent history of multi- ple catastrophic floods, the provincial De- partment of Construction proposed expanding the city’s boundaries in low-lying agricultural areas nearby. This increases the flood hazards and applies for the next catastrophe. For the country it will prove a major challenge match- ing the growth pathway with the SLR related vulnerability (DiGregorio, 2015). 4. Discussions This paper focuses on the impacting nature of climate change mediated SLR. The average global figure of the current 3 mm rise and its increasing trend are subject to both temporal and spatial variations. South-East Asia as a whole, and Vietnam in particular emerge as particularly threatened. This does not only ap- ply to the direct (flood risks, salt water intru- sion), but also the indirect consequences on natural and human ecosystems. The review shows the threats from SLR associated floods and influencing factors as extreme weather conditions to main ecosystem services as drinking water, and those provided by man- groves and wetlands. The text is not complete in this respect. Impacts on agriculture and in- dustrialization are only mentioned, but not covered in depth. The issue is further compli- cated because SLR is one of the effects of climate changes. This makes SLR interlinked with the wide scope of climate change related issues. Therefore SLR should be considered in a wider context. The review points to a series of transversal, cross-cutting elements on SLR: - The complexity and the multiple inter- linkages between SLR, its influencing factors and its effects. Groundwater-SLR links offer an example: Excessive use of groundwater not only affects the volume of the reserves, but also the quality and its degradation (arsenic, chlorine). - Salinization is not only caused by the amounts which are withdrawn, but also by coastline transgression, various hydrogeologi- cal settings influencing the recharge patterns, salt intrusion, and residence time. The prob- lem interferes with environmental quality, so- cio-economy, health and public water distri- bution. - The flood issue provides another exam- ple: Timing, frequency and intensity of tropi- cal storms and hurricanes alter coastal wetland hydrology, geomorphology, biotic structure, energetics and nutrient cycling. These selected examples show that one can address these is- sues only in a comprehensive way which re- quires focus and an interdisciplinary ap- proach. This characteristic of needed inter- disciplinarity applies to all (direct and indi- rect) effects of SLR. SLR issues combine in- formation from fundamental sciences, envi- ronmental management, technology, medi- cine, economics, justice and sustainability, just listing these selected elements. This makes the area prone to developing quantifia- ble frameworks integrating this wide range of aspects. Closely linked with inter-disciplinarity and complexity is scientific uncertainty. Although climate changes and most of their direct and Luc Hens, et al./Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences 40 (2018) 145 indirect effects in general, and SLR in particu- lar, are happening beyond reasonable scien- tific doubt, a series of uncertainties requiring more research, exist. As demonstrated in the results section of this paper examples entail: - The mechanisms governing the SLR- extreme weather effects relationship. - Only few dose-effect relationships have been described. Data on and knowledge about how many migrants coincide with a unit level of SLR, the economic impacts on wetlands, etc. will significantly contribute to SLR risk assessments. Next to the above scientific considerations, a main question relates to “How do we handle the fundamental and associated effects of SLR?”. The answer is since a few years invar- iable: mitigation, adaptation, increasing resili- ence and a targeted policy addressing the problems in a holistic, interrelated way. Mitigation: The best way replying to the above threats is mitigating, if not eradicating, the emissions of greenhouse gasses. De- carbonization and carbon neutrality, moving society away from emitting excessive amounts of CO2 (and related greenhouse gas- ses) are fundamental aims to reactivate the mitigation idea. Ample opportunities exist among others in the energy sector, which heavily depends on fossil energy sources. A transition to renewable energy sources and technologies is unavoidable and mandatory, but will not lead to sufficient climate stabili- zation and environmental quality results. Car- bon taxes aimed at reducing the consumption of fossil fuel based energy, are often men- tioned as complementary measures (see e.g. Carraro, 2012). In 2017, for global policy rea- sons, this target looks more remote and less credible than ever before. Since the European Commission launched the idea of adopting a policy targeted at limiting the climate change mediated temperature at 2°C at most, this be- came a target for global climate change policy (Delbeke and Vis, 2015). If this target is ex- ceeded, the world could experience the high- est ever global SLR in the history of human civilization. Moreover, geoengineering as a technological response is most questionable, not only because of its intrinsic risks but also because doubt exist on whether it can suffi- ciently reduce the radiative forcing (Jevreja et al., 2017). On increasing temperatures, SLR and the related effects (Jordan et al., 2013). Most likely however, policy targets need to be changed: taking the uncomfortable step of going beyond the 2°C scenario becomes more imperative in a world acting too passively on increasing temperatures, SLR and the related effects (Jordan et al., 2013). However new policy targets can only be realized in a context of sufficient awareness, literacy, capacity, and constructive perception of what is needed. Adaptation: Adaptation to a new climate situation and its effects became common once it was realized that the climate changes were a fact, and that mitigation alone as an insuffi- cient answer to the problem. The identifica- tion of adaptation measures requires an inter- disciplinary approach, not only involving sci- entists but also other societal stakeholders. Ideally adaptation measures should have a no- regret character. Until now technical measures adapting to SLR related effects prevail. Dike levels were increased protecting cities from floods, defor- ested mangroves were replanted, and people who lost their houses by storms were offered new buildings remote from the sea. Migration away from the lowest areas will be important. SLR in 84 developing coastal countries might displace tens of millions of people within this century (Dasgupta et al., 2009). This is a cost- ly and difficult to implement consequence with a severe risk of social and economic dis- ruption.Therefore changing the prevailing scenarios of protecting the local population from flooding is needed (McGranahan et al., 2007). Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences, 40(2), 126-152 146 Not only migration has its back draws. Many replanted mangroves do not show the biodiversity of the original ecosystems. Desal- inating groundwater or transporting drinking water over large distances is energy demand- ing and costly. Moreover, although each of these interventions helps, they are insufficient as a reply to the current trends. Definitively above a certain level of change, adaptation may be unable to keep pace with the rate of change or may only be possible at unaccepta- ble high social and/or environmental costs (Jordan, 2013). This places poverty reduction, risk spreading through income diversification, property management rights, and collective security for the inhabitants of low lying coastal areas as in Vietnam, in the center of the adaptation measures to SLR. Vulnerability and resilience: Adaptation, vulnerability and resilience are interlinked. Vulnerability is the capacity of individuals to respond to, recover from or adapt to any ex- ternal stress which is put on their livelihoods and well-being. It is seriously affected by ex- tremes (as hard weather conditions) of the physical environment. But ultimately vulnera- bility dovetails in human behavior patterns, public policies, and structural constraints of societies. Vulnerability is most obvious in ar- eas with dense populations (Montz et al., 2017). Resilience is determined by the potential of the threatened populations to reply to external stresses. Adaptation is a measure for increased resilience. As adaptation resilience is interdis- ciplinary in nature: Resilience combines and integrates economic, environmental, health and social justice aspects. Main instruments to increase the resilience of a vulnerable popula- tion include risk assessment and planning. Risk is often defined as probability multi- plied by consequences. The probability refers to a certain flood event and consequence stands for the corresponding (monetary) dam- age. Risk assessment allows to identify in a quantitative way vulnerable places for SLR, which should be protected to flood effects. Increasing the resilience of both natural and human dominated ecosystems is complex. Evidently enhancing the resilience of man- groves and coastal wetlands necessitates dif- ferent measures as agriculture or tourism. In- creasing resilience should go beyond technical measures as engineered infrastructures, but should be complemented with measures to re- generate coastal ecosystems, shifting agricul- ture practices and increasing the resilience of social systems on e.g. guaranteeing the avail- ability of drinking water. The debate on how urban agglomerations can be made more resilient to flood risks in- cludes a discussion on a diversification, coor- dination, and alignment of the risk manage- ment strategies, including flood risk preven- tion through proactive spatial planning, flood defense, flood risk mitigation, flood prepara- tion, and flood recovery (Driessen et al., 2016). Policy: The complex nature of the power- ful dimensions of SLR requires debates on a wider conceptual horizon. This entails no- regret and economically viable steps of coastal transformation. The effects of dredg- ing always deeper canals guaranteeing the ac- cessibility of inland ports and damming inland rivers on the coast of in particular vulnerable islands should be reconsidered in a context of integrity and intergenerational solidarity (Rei- se, 2017). The complex nature of increasing resilience necessitates the use of a wide series of complementary policy instruments ranging from technical interventions, over comprehen- sive and integrated planning and economy regulations to communication and education interventions. 5. Conclusions Climate change associated SLR is real. Consensus figures point to a 3 mm increase on average worldwide. Vietnam faces slightly higher values and the trend increases. In Luc Hens, et al./Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences 40 (2018) 147 Vietnam the figures should be diversified ac- cording to the region. SLR is related in a multidimensional way to storms and changing precipitation patterns. All three elements contribute to flood risks, of which the hazards increase fast in urban areas, in particular in the deltas and the southern lowlands of the country. SLR affects coastal erosion, biodiversity and landscape damage along the coasts and the river banks in particular in the deltas. 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