Tài chính doanh nghiệp - Chapter 8: Stocks and their valuation

CHAPTER 8Stocks and Their ValuationFeatures of common stockDetermining common stock valuesEfficient marketsPreferred stockFacts about common stockRepresents ownershipOwnership implies controlStockholders elect directorsDirectors elect managementManagement’s goal: Maximize the stock priceSocial/Ethical QuestionShould management be equally concerned about employees, customers, suppliers, and “the public,” or just the stockholders?In an enterprise economy, management should work for stockholders subject to constraints (environmental, fair hiring, etc.) and competition.Types of stock market transactionsSecondary marketPrimary marketInitial public offering market (“going public”)Different approaches for valuing common stockDividend growth modelCorporate value modelUsing the multiples of comparable firmsDividend growth modelValue of a stock is the present value of the future dividends expected to be generated by the stock.Constant growth stockA stock whose dividends are expected to grow forever at a constant rate, g. D1 = D0 (1+g)1 D2 = D0 (1+g)2 Dt = D0 (1+g)t If g is constant, the dividend growth formula converges to:Future dividends and their present values$0.25Years (t)0What happens if g > ks?If g > ks, the constant growth formula leads to a negative stock price, which does not make sense.The constant growth model can only be used if:ks > gg is expected to be constant foreverIf kRF = 7%, kM = 12%, and β = 1.2, what is the required rate of return on the firm’s stock?Use the SML to calculate the required rate of return (ks): ks = kRF + (kM – kRF)β = 7% + (12% - 7%)1.2 = 13%If D0 = $2 and g is a constant 6%, find the expected dividend stream for the next 3 years, and their PVs.1.87611.7599D0 = 2.001.6509ks = 13%g = 6%012.24722.38232.12What is the stock’s market value?Using the constant growth model:What is the expected market price of the stock, one year from now?D1 will have been paid out already. So, P1 is the present value (as of year 1) of D2, D3, D4, etc.Could also find expected P1 as:What is the expected dividend yield, capital gains yield, and total return during the first year?Dividend yield = D1 / P0 = $2.12 / $30.29 = 7.0%Capital gains yield = (P1 – P0) / P0 = ($32.10 - $30.29) / $30.29 = 6.0%Total return (ks) = Dividend Yield + Capital Gains Yield = 7.0% + 6.0% = 13.0%What would the expected price today be, if g = 0?The dividend stream would be a perpetuity.2.002.002.000123ks = 13%...Supernormal growth:What if g = 30% for 3 years before achieving long-run growth of 6%?Can no longer use just the constant growth model to find stock value.However, the growth does become constant after 3 years.Valuing common stock with nonconstant growthks = 13%g = 30%g = 30%g = 30%g = 6%$P=0.06$66.5434.6580.13-=2.3012.6473.04546.11454.107 = P0^01234D0 = 2.00 2.600 3.380 4.394...4.658Find expected dividend and capital gains yields during the first and fourth years.Dividend yield (first year) = $2.60 / $54.11 = 4.81%Capital gains yield (first year) = 13.00% - 4.81% = 8.19%During nonconstant growth, dividend yield and capital gains yield are not constant, and capital gains yield ≠ g.After t = 3, the stock has constant growth and dividend yield = 7%, while capital gains yield = 6%.Nonconstant growth:What if g = 0% for 3 years before long-run growth of 6%?ks = 13%g = 0%g = 0%g = 0%g = 6%0.06$$30.29P32.120.13=-=1.771.571.3920.9925.72 = P0^01234D0 = 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00...2.12Find expected dividend and capital gains yields during the first and fourth years.Dividend yield (first year) = $2.00 / $25.72 = 7.78%Capital gains yield (first year) = 13.00% - 7.78% = 5.22%After t = 3, the stock has constant growth and dividend yield = 7%, while capital gains yield = 6%.If the stock was expected to have negative growth (g = -6%), would anyone buy the stock, and what is its value?The firm still has earnings and pays dividends, even though they may be declining, they still have value.Find expected annual dividend and capital gains yields.Capital gains yield = g = -6.00%Dividend yield = 13.00% - (-6.00%) = 19.00%Since the stock is experiencing constant growth, dividend yield and capital gains yield are constant. Dividend yield is sufficiently large (19%) to offset a negative capital gains.Corporate value modelAlso called the free cash flow method. Suggests the value of the entire firm equals the present value of the firm’s free cash flows.Remember, free cash flow is the firm’s after-tax operating income less the net capital investmentFCF = NOPAT – Net capital investmentApplying the corporate value modelFind the market value (MV) of the firm.Find PV of firm’s future FCFsSubtract MV of firm’s debt and preferred stock to get MV of common stock. MV of = MV of – MV of debt andcommon stock firm preferredDivide MV of common stock by the number of shares outstanding to get intrinsic stock price (value).P0 = MV of common stock / # of sharesIssues regarding the corporate value modelOften preferred to the dividend growth model, especially when considering number of firms that don’t pay dividends or when dividends are hard to forecast.Similar to dividend growth model, assumes at some point free cash flow will grow at a constant rate.Terminal value (TVn) represents value of firm at the point that growth becomes constant.Given the long-run gFCF = 6%, and WACC of 10%, use the corporate value model to find the firm’s intrinsic value.g = 6%k = 10%21.2001234 -5 10 20...416.942-4.5458.26415.026398.19721.20530 = = TV30.100.06-If the firm has $40 million in debt and has 10 million shares of stock, what is the firm’s intrinsic value per share?MV of equity = MV of firm – MV of debt = $416.94m - $40m = $376.94 millionValue per share = MV of equity / # of shares = $376.94m / 10m = $37.69Firm multiples methodAnalysts often use the following multiples to value stocks.P / EP / CFP / SalesEXAMPLE: Based on comparable firms, estimate the appropriate P/E. Multiply this by expected earnings to back out an estimate of the stock price.What is market equilibrium?In equilibrium, stock prices are stable and there is no general tendency for people to buy versus to sell.In equilibrium, expected returns must equal required returns.Market equilibriumExpected returns are obtained by estimating dividends and expected capital gains.Required returns are obtained by estimating risk and applying the CAPM.How is market equilibrium established?If expected return exceeds required return The current price (P0) is “too low” and offers a bargain.Buy orders will be greater than sell orders.P0 will be bid up until expected return equals required returnFactors that affect stock priceRequired return (ks) could changeChanging inflation could cause kRF to changeMarket risk premium or exposure to market risk (β) could changeGrowth rate (g) could changeDue to economic (market) conditionsDue to firm conditionsWhat is the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)?Securities are normally in equilibrium and are “fairly priced.” Investors cannot “beat the market” except through good luck or better information.Levels of market efficiencyWeak-form efficiencySemistrong-form efficiencyStrong-form efficiencyWeak-form efficiencyCan’t profit by looking at past trends. A recent decline is no reason to think stocks will go up (or down) in the future. Evidence supports weak-form EMH, but “technical analysis” is still used.Semistrong-form efficiencyAll publicly available information is reflected in stock prices, so it doesn’t pay to over analyze annual reports looking for undervalued stocks. Largely true, but superior analysts can still profit by finding and using new informationStrong-form efficiencyAll information, even inside information, is embedded in stock prices. Not true--insiders can gain by trading on the basis of insider information, but that’s illegal.Is the stock market efficient?Empirical studies have been conducted to test the three forms of efficiency. Most of which suggest the stock market was:Highly efficient in the weak form.Reasonably efficient in the semistrong form.Not efficient in the strong form. Insiders could and did make abnormal (and sometimes illegal) profits.Behavioral finance – incorporates elements of cognitive psychology to better understand how individuals and markets respond to different situations.Preferred stockHybrid securityLike bonds, preferred stockholders receive a fixed dividend that must be paid before dividends are paid to common stockholders. However, companies can omit preferred dividend payments without fear of pushing the firm into bankruptcy.If preferred stock with an annual dividend of $5 sells for $50, what is the preferred stock’s expected return? Vp = D / kp $50 = $5 / kp kp = $5 / $50 = 0.10 = 10%