Thương mại điện tử - Chapter 10: Decision support systems

Decision Support SystemsChapter10Identify the changes taking place in the form and use of decision support in business.Identify the role and reporting alternatives of management information systems.Describe how online analytical processing can meet key information needs of managers.Learning ObjectivesLearning ObjectivesExplain the decision support system concept and how it differs from traditional management information systems.Explain how the following information systems can support the information needs of executives, managers, and business professionals:Executive information systemsEnterprise information portalsKnowledge management systemsLearning ObjectivesIdentify how neural networks, fuzzy logic, genetic algorithms, virtual reality, and intelligent agents can be used in business.Give examples of several ways expert systems can be used in business decision-making situations.Why Study Decision Support Systems?As companies migrate toward responsive e-business models, they are investing in new data-driven decision support application frameworks that help them respond rapidly to changing market conditions and customer needs.Case #1: Centralized Business IntelligenceStrategic Business Intelligence Approach:Standardize on fewer business-intelligence tools and make them available throughout organizations even before projects are plannedCreate dedicated groups called competency centers to manage business-intelligence projects and provide technical and analytical expertise to other employeesCase #1: Centralized Business IntelligenceCompetency Center Approaches:Centralized vs. VirtualPart of IT department vs. independentCase #1: Centralized Business IntelligenceWhat is business intelligence? Why are business-intelligence systems such a popular business application of IT?What is the business value of the various BI applications discussed in the case?Is a business-intelligence system an MIS or a DSS?Why does it appear that companies are placing more and more responsibility for BI in the hands of the IT department?Information, Decisions and ManagementLevels of Management Decision MakingStrategic – group of executives develop overall organizational goals, strategies, policies, and objectives as part of a strategic planning processTactical – managers and business professionals in self-directed teams develop short- and medium-range plans, schedules and budgets and specify the policies, procedures and business objectives for their subunitsOperational – managers or members of self-directed teams develop short-range plans such as weekly production schedulesInformation QualityDefinition:Information products whose characteristics, attributes, or qualities make the information more valueAttributes of Information QualityDecision StructureStructured – situations where the procedures to follow when a decision is needed can be specified in advanceUnstructured – decision situations where it is not possible to specify in advance most of the decision procedures to followSemi structured - decision procedures that can be prespecified, but not enough to lead to a definite recommended decisionDecision Support TrendsThis emerging class of applications focuses on personalized decision support, modeling, information retrieval, data warehousing, what-if scenarios, and reporting.MIS vs. DSSBusiness IntelligenceExecutive class information delivery and decision support software tools used by lower levels of management and by individuals and teams of business professionalsDecision Support Systems (DSS)Definition:Computer-based information systems that provide interactive information support to managers and business professionals during the decision-making process using the following to make semi structured business decisionsAnalytical modelsSpecialized databasesA decision maker’s own insights and judgmentsAn interactive, computer-based modeling process DSS ComponentsModel BaseDefinition:Software component that consists of models used in computational and analytical routines that mathematically express relationships among variablesDecision Support SystemManagement Information Systems (MIS)Definition:An information system that produces information products that support many of the day-to-day decision-making needs of managers and business professionalsManagement Reporting AlternativesPeriodic Scheduled ReportsException ReportsDemand Reports and ResponsesPush ReportingOnline Analytical Processing (OLAP)Definition:Enables mangers and analysts to interactively examine and manipulate large amounts of detailed and consolidated data from many perspectivesAnalytical OperationsConsolidation – aggregation of dataDrill-down – detail data that comprise consolidated dataSlice and Dice – ability to look at the database from different viewpointsOLAP TechnologyGeographic Information Systems (GIS)Definition:DSS that uses geographic databases to construct and display maps and other graphics displays that support decisions affecting the geographic distribution of people and other resourcesData Visualization Systems (DVS)DVS represent complex data using interactive three-dimensional graphical forms such as charts, graphs, and mapsDVS tools help users to interactively sort, subdivide, combine, and organize data while it is in its graphical form.Using DSSWhat-if Analysis – end user makes changes to variables, or relationships among variables, and observes the resulting changes in the values of other variablesSensitivity Analysis – value of only one variable is changed repeatedly and the resulting changes in other variables are observedUsing DSSGoal-Seeking – set a target value for a variable and then repeatedly change other variables until the target value is achievedOptimization – goal is to find the optimum value for one or more target variables given certain constraints then one or more other variables are changed repeatedly until the best values for the target variables are discoveredData Mining for Decision SupportData mining software analyzes the vast stores of historical business data that have been prepared for analysis in corporate data warehouses, and tries to discover patterns, trends, and correlations hidden in the data that can help a company improve its business performance.Data mining software may perform regression, decision tree, neural network, cluster detection, or market basket analysis for a business.Market Basket Analysis (MBA)Definition:The purpose is to determine what products customers purchase together with other productsExecutive Information Systems (EIS)Definition:Information systems that provide top executives, managers, analysts, and other knowledge workers with immediate and easy access to information about a firm’s key factors that are critical to accomplishing an organization’s strategic objectivesFeatures of an EISInformation presented in forms tailored to the preferences of the executives using the systemCustomizable graphics displaysException reportingTrend analysisDrill down capabilityEnterprise Portals and Decision SupportDefinition:A Web-based interface and integration of MIS, DSS, EIS, and other technologies that gives all intranet users and selected extranet users access to a variety of internal and external business applications and servicesEnterprise Information Portal ComponentsKnowledge Management SystemsDefinition:The use of information technology to help gather, organize, and share business knowledge within an organizationEnterprise Knowledge PortalsDefinition:Entry to corporate intranets that serve as their knowledge management systemsCase #2: Business Value of AIArtificial Intelligence Uses:Design jet enginesMonitor factory equipment and signal when preventative maintenance is neededGain insights into human genome for pharmaceutical researchDetect credit card fraudCase #2: Business Value of AIAI Benefits:Data mining systems sift instantly through a deluge of data to uncover patterns and relationships that would elude an army of researchersCompanies can predict sales and other customer behaviorsCase #2: Business Value of AIChallenges in AI Systems:Getting transaction dataDealing with disparate sources of dataCase #2: Business Value of AIWhat is the business value of AI technologies in business today? Use several examples from the case to illustrate your answer.What are some of the benefits and limitations of data mining for business intelligence? Use BankFinancial’s experience to illustrate your answer.Case #2: Business Value of AIWhy have banks and other financial institutions been leading users of AI technologies like neural networks? What are the benefits and limitations of this technology?Why are neural network and expert system technologies used in many data-mining applications?Artificial Intelligence (AI)Definition:A field of science and technology based on disciplines such as computer science, biology, psychology, linguistics, mathematics, and engineeringGoal is to develop computers that can simulate the ability to think, as well as see, hear, walk, talk, and feelAttributes of Intelligent BehaviorThink and reasonUse reason to solve problemsLearn or understand from experienceAcquire and apply knowledgeExhibit creativity and imaginationDeal with complex or perplexing situationsRespond quickly and successfully to new situationsRecognize the relative importance of elements in a situationHandle ambiguous, incomplete, or erroneous informationDomains of Artificial IntelligenceCognitive ScienceDefinition:Focuses on researching how the human brain works and how humans think and learnRoboticsDefinition:Robot machines with computer intelligence and computer controlled, humanlike physical capabilitiesNatural InterfacesDefinition:Includes natural language, speech recognition, and the development of multisensory devices that use a variety of body movements to operate computersExpert SystemsDefinition:A knowledge-based information system that uses its knowledge about a specific, complex application to act as an expert consultant to end usersExpert System ComponentsKnowledge Base – facts about specific subject area and heuristics that express the reasoning procedures of an expertSoftware Resources – inference engine and other programs refining knowledge and communicating with usersMethods of Knowledge RepresentationCase-Based – examples of past performance, occurrences and experiencesFrame-Based – hierarchy or network of entities consisting of a complex package of data valuesObject-Based – data and the methods or processes that act on those dataRule-Based – rules and statements that typically take the form of a premise and a conclusionExpert System BenefitsFaster and more consistent than an expertCan have the knowledge of several expertsDoes not get tired or distracted by overwork or stressHelps preserve and reproduce the knowledge of expertsExpert System LimitationsLimited focusInability to learnMaintenance problemsDevelopmental costsSuitability Criteria for Expert SystemsKnowledge EngineerDefinition:A professional who works with experts to capture the knowledge they possesNeural NetworksDefinition:Computing systems modeled after the brain’s mesh-like network of interconnected processing elements, called neuronsFuzzy LogicDefinition:Method of reasoning that resembles human reasoning since it allows for approximate values and inferences and incomplete or ambiguous data instead of relying only on crisp dataGenetic AlgorithmsDefinition:Software that uses Darwinian, randomizing, and other mathematical functions to simulate an evolutionary process that can yield increasingly better solutions to a problemVirtual Reality (VR)Definition:Computer-simulated reality that relies on multisensory input/output devices such as a tracking headset with video goggles and stereo earphones, a data glove or jumpsuit with fiber-optic sensors that track your body movements, and a walker that monitors the movement of your feetIntelligent AgentsDefinition:A software surrogate for an end user or a process that fulfills a stated need or activity by using built-in and learned knowledge base to make decisions and accomplish tasks in a way that fulfills the intentions of a userUser Interface AgentsInterface Tutors – observe user computer operations, correct user mistakes, and provide hints and advice on efficient software usePresentation – show information in a variety of forms and media based on user preferencesNetwork Navigation – discover paths to information Role-Playing – play what-if games and other roles to help users understand information and make better decisionsInformation Management AgentsSearch Agents – help users find files and databases, search for desired information, and suggest and find new types of information products, media, and resourcesInformation Brokers – provide commercial services to discover and develop information resources that fit the business or personal needs of a userInformation Filters – receive, find, filter, discard, save, forward, and notify users about products received or desiredCase #3: Agent-Based Modeling for SCMIn Proctor & Gamble’s computer simulations, software agents represent the individual components of the supply systems, such as trucks, drivers, stores, and so on. The behavior of each agent is programmed via rules that mimic actual behavior, such as, “Dispatch this truck only when it is full”.The simulations let P&G perform what-if analysis to test the impact of new logistics rules on three key metrics: inventory levels, transportation costs, and in-store-stock-outs.Case #3: Agent-Based Modeling for SCMChange Areas:Relaxation of rigid rules, often counter intuitively, in order to improve the overall performance of the supply network.More flexibility in manufacturing.More flexibility in distribution.Case #3: Agent-Based Modeling for SCMDo you agree with Proctor & Gamble that a supply chain should be called a supply network? Why or why not?What is the business value of agent-based modeling? Use P&G and other companies in this case as examples.Visit the website of NuTech Solutions. How does NuTech use AI techniques to help companies gain “adaptive” business intelligence? Give several examples from the website case studies.Case #4: Web-Based ToolsMany large corporations are turning to Web-based financial and analytical tools to rapidly consolidate and present key financial data on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis.Such companies can close their books for all divisions on the same system within two hours after the close of business at the end of each month.Case #4: Web-Based ToolsBusiness intelligence tools, permit multidimensional views of profit-and-loss data. Such data can quickly be analyzed by switching the columnar and row data, and also bringing in different dimensions or measures such as budget or prior year, then drilling down to get subsets of the data.Case #4: Web-Based ToolsWhat are the business benefits and limitations of Boehringer’s Web-based financial analysis and reporting systems?Which of Boehringer’s financial analysis and reporting systems are MIS tools? DSS tools? Why?Case #4: Web-Based ToolsHow could the Cognos tools used by Boehringer be used for marketing and other business analysis and reporting applications? Visit the Cognos website to help you answer.SummaryInformation systems can support a variety of management decision-making levels including strategic, tactical and operational as well as structured, semi structured and unstructured.Decision support in business is changing, driven by rapid developments in end user computing and networking.SummaryManagement information systems provide prespecified reports and responses to managers on a periodic, exception, demand, or push reporting basis, to meet their need for information to support decision making.Online analytical processing interactively analyzes complex relationships among large amounts of data stored in multidimensional databases.SummaryData mining analyzes the vast amounts of historical data that have been prepared for analysis in data warehouses .Decision support system are interactive, computer-based information systems that use DSS software and a model base and database to provide information tailored to support semi structured and unstructured decisions faced by individual managers.SummaryExecutive information systems are easy to use and enable executives to retrieve information tailored to their needs and preferences.Enterprise information and knowledge portals provide a customized and personalized Web-based interface for corporate intranets to give their users easy access to a variety of internal and external business applications, databases, and information services that are tailored to their individual preferences and information needs.SummaryThe goal of artificial intelligence is the development of computer functions normally associated with human physical and mental capabilities.Expert systems are knowledge-based information systems that use software and a knowledge base about a specific, complex application area to act as expert consultants to users in many business and technical applications.End of ChapterChapter10